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Dispersion in macroeconomic volatility between the core and periphery of the international trade network

机译：国际贸易网络核心与外围之间宏观经济波动的分散

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At the country level, macroeconomic volatility tends to correlate with trade openness although the direction of correlation is not stable across samples. Higher openness allows for greater diversification opportunities, but provides lesser immunity from outside shocks. Here I consider trade network as a composite of all pairwise trade linkages to emphasize that different linkages contribute differently to the transmission or mitigation of shocks, and show that volatility is inversely related to centrality, a summary measure of strength of the linkages specific to a country. I study a dynamic multi-country, multi-sector model subject to idiosyncratic liquidity shocks, and characterize volatility as an explicit function of centrality, diversification and the Herfindahl of the trade network in equilibrium. With sufficient skewness in the trade linkages across countries, similar shocks generate substantially different levels of repercussions across the network. The conventional effect of diversification holds true that countries with better diversified trade portfolio fluctuate less. Centrality directly contributes to higher resilience to exogenous shocks, thus reducing volatility. Combined effect of these two mechanisms dominates the opposite effect that a more central country is also more exposed to shocks, which increases volatility. The model calibrated to the EU generates and closely replicates the negative relationship between centrality and volatility. The theoretical model is then extended to capture preference shocks and sparseness of the trade networks. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译：在国家一级，宏观经济波动往往与贸易开放度相关，尽管各个样本之间的相关方向不稳定。较高的开放度会带来更多的多元化机会，但对外界冲击的抵抗力会减弱。在这里，我认为贸易网络是所有成对贸易链接的组合，以强调不同的链接对冲击的传递或缓解的贡献不同，并表明波动率与集中度成反比，集中度是特定于一个国家的链接强度的概括性度量。我研究了一个受异质性流动性冲击影响的动态多国家，多部门模型，并将波动率定性为集中性，多元化和贸易网络平衡中的赫芬达尔的明确函数。由于各国之间的贸易联系存在足够的偏差，类似的冲击会在整个网络上产生不同程度的影响。多样化的传统效果是正确的，即贸易组合多元化程度更高的国家波动较小。集中性直接有助于提高对外来冲击的适应力，从而减少波动。这两种机制的综合作用在相反的作用上占主导地位，相反的结果是，更多的中部国家也更容易受到冲击，从而加剧了动荡。经过校准的欧盟模型产生并紧密复制了集中度和波动性之间的负面关系。然后扩展理论模型以捕获贸易网络的偏好冲击和稀疏性。 （C）2018 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。

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