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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control >Surprise, surprise - Measuring firm-level investment innovations
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Surprise, surprise - Measuring firm-level investment innovations

机译:惊喜,惊喜-衡量公司层面的投资创新

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摘要

Using the IFO Investment Survey for the German manufacturing sector, we construct a forty-year panel of firm-level investment innovations (surprises). We document the cross-sectional and time-series properties of this panel, and our main findings are: the crosssectional dispersion of investment surprises is countercyclical, as is their average within firm time series volatility, and both are highly correlated. This justifies, in part, strategies in the literature to use cross-sectional moments for the calibration of heteroscedasticity. At the same time, the cross-sectional dispersion of investment is procyclical, suggesting a nonsmooth capital adjustment friction at the micro level. There is substantial dispersion in within-firm volatility, a feature consistent with a recent literature on information frictions at the firm-level. Finally, the aforementioned second moments of investment innovations are Granger-caused by recessions, but not vice versa, rendering simple exogenous uncertainty shocks less plausible as drivers of business cycles. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译:使用IFO对德国制造业的投资调查,我们构建了一个为期40年的公司级投资创新(惊奇)小组。我们记录了该面板的横截面和时间序列属性,我们的主要发现是:投资意外事件的横截面散布是反周期的,在固定时间序列波动中的平均值也是反周期的,并且两者之间高度相关。这在一定程度上证明了文献中使用截面矩进行异方差校准的策略的合理性。同时,投资的横截面分散是周期性的,这表明微观层面的资本调整摩擦不平稳。公司内部的波动存在很大的分散性,这一特征与最近有关企业层面信息摩擦的文献一致。最后,上述投资创新的第二时刻是由衰退引起的格兰杰,但反之则不然,这使得简单的外在不确定性冲击不像商业周期的推动力那样合理。 (C)2017 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。

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