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Deviations from rules-based policy and their effects

机译：与基于规则的策略的差异及其影响

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Rules-based monetary policy evaluation has long been central to macroeconomics. Using the original Taylor rule, a modified Taylor rule with a higher output gap coefficient, and an estimated Taylor rule, we define rules-based and discretionary eras by smaller and larger policy rule deviations, the absolute value of the difference between the actual federal funds rate and the federal funds rate prescribed by the three rules. We use tests for multiple structural changes to identify the eras so that knowledge of subsequent economic outcomes cannot influence the choice of the dates. With the original Taylor rule, monetary policy in the U.S. is characterized by a rules-based era until 1974, a discretionary era from 1974 to 1985, a rules-based era from 1985 to 2000, and a discretionary era from 2001 to 2013. With the modified Taylor rule, the rules-based era extends further into the 1970s and there is an additional rules-based period starting in 2006. We calculate various loss functions and find that economic performance is uniformly better during rules-based eras than during discretionary eras, and that the original Taylor rule provides the largest loss during discretionary periods relative to loss during rules-based periods. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译：长期以来，基于规则的货币政策评估一直是宏观经济学的核心。使用原始的泰勒规则，具有更高输出缺口系数的改良泰勒规则和估计的泰勒规则，我们通过越来越小的政策规则偏差（实际联邦资金之间的差的绝对值）来定义基于规则的时代和自由裁量时代。利率和三项规则规定的联邦基金利率。我们使用多种结构变化的测试来确定时代，以便对后续经济成果的了解不会影响日期的选择。遵循最初的泰勒规则，美国的货币政策的特征是直到1974年的规则时代，1974年至1985年的自由裁量时代，1985年至2000年的基于规则的时代以及2001年至2013年的自由时代。经过修改的泰勒规则，基于规则的时代进一步延伸到1970年代，并且从2006年开始还有一个基于规则的时期。我们计算了各种损失函数，发现基于规则的时代的经济绩效要比自由裁量时代的统一更好。 ，并且相对于基于规则的期间的损失，原始泰勒规则在酌处期间提供的损失最大。 （C）2014 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。

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