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Optimal fiscal policy with robust control

机译：具有强大控制力的最佳财政政策

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摘要

This paper analyzes how consumer uncertainty affects optimal fiscal policy in the Lucas and Stokey (1983) framework. The consumers, lacking confidence in their knowledge of the stochastic environment, endogenously tilt their subjective probability model away from an approximating probability model. The government, though, is confident that the approximating probability model characterizes the stochastic environment. This confidence dichotomy reveals a range of possible objective functions for an altruistic government. I assume that the government maximizes the consumers' expected utility under the consumers' own subjective probability model. It is found that this government relies less heavily on labor taxes to absorb the fiscal shock than would be optimal if consumers were fully confident in their probability model. This policy helps mitigate the direct welfare cost associated with consumer uncertainty. I compare this policy to the one implemented by a government that maximizes the consumers' expected utility under the approximating probability model.
机译：本文分析了消费者不确定性如何影响Lucas和Stokey（1983）框架中的最佳财政政策。消费者对随机环境的知识缺乏信心，因此内生地将其主观概率模型从近似概率模型上移开。但是，政府有信心近似概率模型可以表征随机环境。这种信心二分法揭示了利他政府的一系列可能的目标功能。我假设政府根据消费者自己的主观概率模型使消费者的预期效用最大化。人们发现，如果消费者对概率模型完全有信心，那么该政府对劳动力税收的依赖程度就不如最佳政府那样好。这项政策有助于减轻与消费者不确定性相关的直接福利成本。我将这一政策与政府实施的一项政策进行了比较，该政府在近似概率模型下最大化了消费者的预期效用。

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