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Endogenous fiscal policy and capital market transmissions in the presence of demographic shocks

机译:存在人口冲击的内生财政政策和资本市场传导

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摘要

Previous analyses of population aging mainly focused on the social security implications of the aging trend. This paper addresses aging in an open economy framework with two regions that have politically responsive fiscal policy regarding education finance. Demographic shocks start an economic growth process but results are sensitive to a critical parameter in the model that indicates return to education spending. Low values of this parameter are associated with less favorable economic outcomes. Hence, a policy implication emerges that enhancing the education system might pay off in terms of easing the negative growth and welfare consequences of expected demographic shocks.
机译:先前对人口老龄化的分析主要集中于老龄化趋势对社会保障的影响。本文探讨了开放经济框架中的老龄化问题,其中两个地区在政治上都对教育融资采取了对政治敏感的财政政策。人口冲击开始了经济增长过程,但结果对模型中指示教育支出回报的关键参数敏感。此参数的值较低会带来不利的经济结果。因此,出现了一种政策含义,即通过减轻预期的人口冲击带来的负面增长和福利后果,加强教育系统可能会有所作为。

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