Does inflation increase after a monetary policy tightening? Answers based on an estimated DSGE model

Pau Rabanal

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Does inflation increase after a monetary policy tightening? Answers based on an estimated DSGE model

机译：紧缩货币政策后通胀会增加吗？根据估算的DSGE模型得出的答案

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This paper estimates the importance of the cost channel of monetary policy in a New Keynesian model of the business cycle. A model with nominal and real rigidities is extended by assuming that a fraction of firms need to borrow money to pay their wage bill. Hence, a monetary policy tightening increases effective unit labor costs of production, and might imply an increase in inflation. The paper examines the conditions under which the model can generate a positive response of inflation to a monetary contraction, and estimates the model's parameters using Bayesian methods. The paper shows that the estimated demand-side effects of monetary policy dominate the estimated supply side effect, even if restrictions are imposed that make occurrence of a positive inflation response to a monetary contraction more likely.

机译：本文估计了新的凯恩斯主义商业周期模型中货币政策成本渠道的重要性。通过假设一部分公司需要借钱来支付工资，可以扩展具有名义和实际刚性的模型。因此，紧缩货币政策会增加有效的单位劳动生产成本，并可能暗示通货膨胀率上升。本文研究了在什么条件下模型可以产生通货膨胀对货币紧缩的正响应，并使用贝叶斯方法估计模型的参数。本文表明，即使施加了限制，使得更有可能对货币紧缩做出积极的通货膨胀反应，但货币政策的估计的需求副作用在估计的供应副作用中占主导地位。

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来源
《Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control》 |2007年第3期|p.906-937|共32页
作者
Pau Rabanal;
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作者单位

Avinguda Diagonal 621-629, Torre 1, Planta 6, 08029 Barcelona, Spain;

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原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类 f;
关键词
price puzzle; new keynesian models; bayesian methods; united states;

机译：价格难题;新凯恩斯模型;贝叶斯方法;美国;

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机译：金融发展和货币政策的分配效应货币政策的分配后果是否取决于金融发展的程度？各国的最优货币政策应该不同吗？为了回答这些问题，我们开发了一个具有异构代理的货币增长生产模型。在我们的经济中，最优政策需要权衡两个群体的政策效应 - 资本所有者和持有流动资产的个人。虽然银行帮助限制通胀风险，但存在限制，因为资金减轻了私人信息的摩擦和有限的沟通。在这种环境下，我们比较两个经济体在各个方面都是相同的，除了它们的金融发展水平。在金融发展有限的国家，缺乏股票市场。另一方面，股票市场活跃。在任一经济体中，通胀都会对资本形成和产出产生不利影响持有流动资产的个人总是受到通货膨胀的不利影响，但资本所有者的态度取决于金融发展的水平。特别是，在股票市场存在的情况下，通货膨胀对资本所有者福利的影响是非单调的。尽管如此，在较高的金融发展水平下，最优货币政策总是更加保守。

Does inflation increase after a monetary policy tightening? Answers based on an estimated DSGE model

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