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Bounded rationality, heterogeneity and market dynamics

机译：有限的理性，异质性和市场动态

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In June 2002, the Lorentz center in Leiden, the Netherlands, hosted a small workshop on Economic Dynamics. This special issue of the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control is a collection of 10 papers presented at that workshop. The rational paradigm in economic theory assumes that economic agents are decision makers (e.g. households) who are fully rational in choosing their actions, given their perceived feasibility constraints (e.g. a budget set), in order to optimize some objective function (e.g. a utility function). The implications of this assumption surface when the hypothesis of rationality is extended to a dynamical economic environment, where agents have to form expectations about the future realization of certain economic variables. In order for their predictions to be rational, that is consistent with the actual stochastic evolution of the economy, there are two alternatives. Either we treat this situation as an equilibrium in the Debreu sense and say, "if all agents had these expectations then everything would be consistent and we can find the corresponding equilibrium". Alternatively, we might wish to know how agents come to have these expectations. In this case, agents have to understand their economic environment (Muth, in his classic Econometrica paper, writes: "... I should like to suggest, that expectations, since they are informed predictions of future events, are essentially the same as the prediction of the relevant economic theory." (Muth, 1961, p. 316)). It is obvious that this sort of rationality demands quite a lot of the cognitive abilities and computational skills of economic agents.
机译：2002年6月，位于荷兰莱顿的洛伦兹中心举办了一次有关经济动力的小型研讨会。本期《经济动力与控制学报》的特刊是该研讨会上发表的10篇论文的集合。经济理论中的理性范式假定，经济主体是决策者（例如家庭），他们在考虑到他们的可行性约束（例如预算集）的情况下完全理性地选择其行动，以优化某些目标函数（例如效用函数） ）。当合理性的假设扩展到动态的经济环境时，这一假设的含义就浮出水面，在这种经济环境中，代理人必须对某些经济变量的未来实现形成期望。为了使他们的预测合理，并与经济的实际随机演变相一致，有两种选择。我们要么将这种情况视为Debreu的均衡，然后说：“如果所有代理都有这些期望，那么一切都会是一致的，我们可以找到相应的均衡”。另外，我们可能希望知道代理商如何达到这些期望。在这种情况下，特工必须了解他们的经济环境（穆特在他的经典《计量经济学》论文中写道：“ ...我想暗示一下，因为他们是对未来事件的明智预测，所以他们的期望与预想的基本相同。相关经济理论的预测”（Muth，1961年，第316页）。显然，这种理性要求经济主体具有相当大的认知能力和计算能力。

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