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Explaining the Decline in the US Employment-to-Population Ratio: A Review of the Evidence

机译：解释美国就业到人口比率的下降：对证据的审查

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摘要

This paper first documents trends in employment rates and then reviews what is known about the various factors that have been proposed to explain the decline in the overall employment-to-population ratio between 1999 and 2018. Population aging has had a large effect on the overall employment rate over this period, but within-age-group declines in employment among young- and prime-age adults also have played a central role. Among the factors with effects that we can quantify based on existing evidence, labor demand factors, in particular increased import competition from China and the penetration of robots into the labor market, are the most important drivers of observed within-group declines in employment. Labor supply factors, most notably increased participation in disability insurance programs, have played a less important but not inconsequential role. Increases in the real value of state minimum wages and in the share of individuals with prison records also have contributed modestly to the decline in the aggregate employment rate. In addition to the factors whose effects we roughly quantify, we identify a set of potentially important factors about which the evidence does not yet allow us to draw clear conclusions. These include the challenges associated with arranging child care, improvements in leisure technology, changing social norms, increased use of opioids, the growth in occupational licensing, and declining labor market fluidity. Our evidence-driven ranking of factors should be useful for guiding future discussions about the sources of decline in the aggregate employment-to-population ratio and consequently the likely efficacy of alternative policy approaches to increasing employment rates.
机译：本文首先撰写了就业率的趋势，然后评论了提议解释1999年至2018年之间总体就业比例下降的各种因素所知的内容。人口老龄化对整体造成了很大影响在此期间的就业率，但在年轻和黄金时期成年人的雇佣中的次数下降也起到了核心作用。在基于现有证据，劳动力需求因素，特别是从中国的进口竞争以及机器人渗透到劳动力市场的劳动力需求中，是劳动力市场的效果的因素中，是观察到的内部就业内容下降的最重要驱动因素。劳动力供应因素，最显着增加了残疾保险方案的参与，发挥了不太重要但不是无关紧要的作用。国家最低工资的实际价值增加以及监狱记录的个人的份额也促使汇总就业率的下降。除了由于我们大致量化的影响的因素外，我们还确定了一套潜在的重要因素，证据尚未允许我们得出明确的结论。其中包括与安排儿童保育，休闲技术的改进，不断变化的社会规范，增加的阿片类药物，职业许可的增长以及劳动力市场流动性下降的挑战。我们的证据驱动的因素排名对于指导未来关于总雇用与人口比率下降来源的未来讨论，因此可能对替代政策方法对提高就业率的可能性。

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  • 来源
    《Journal of Economic Literature》 |2020年第3期|585-643|共59页
  • 作者

    KATHARINE G. ABRAHAM; MELISSA S. KEARNEY;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Economics and Joint Program in Survey Methodology University of Maryland Institute of Labor Economics and NBER;

    Department of Economics University of Maryland and NBER;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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