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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Economic Literature >How successful was the new deal? the microeconomic impact of new deal spending and lending Policies in the 1930s
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How successful was the new deal? the microeconomic impact of new deal spending and lending Policies in the 1930s

机译：新交易有多成功？ 1930年代新交易支出和贷款政策的微观经济影响

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The New Deal during the 1930s was arguably the largest peace-Time expansion in federal government activity in American history. Until recently, there had been very little quantitative testing of the microeconomic impact of the wide variety of New Deal programs. Over the past decade scholars have developed new panel databases for counties, cities, and states and then used panel data methods on them to examine the impact of New Deal spending and lending policies for the major New Deal programs. In most cases, the identification of the effect comes from changes across time within the same geographic location after controlling for national shocks to the economy. Many of the studies also use instrumental variable methods to control for endogeneity. The studies find that public works and relief spending had state income multipliers of around one, increased consumption activity, attracted internal migration, reduced crime rates, and lowered several types of mortality. The farm programs typically aided large farm owners but eliminated opportunities for share croppers, tenants, and farm workers. The Home Owners' Loan Corporation's purchases and refinancing of troubled mortgages staved off drops in housing prices and home ownership rates at relatively low ex post cost to taxpayers. The Reconstruction Finance Corporation's loans to banks and railroads appear to have had little positive impact,although the banks were aided when the RFC took ownership stakes. (JEL D72, E61, L52, N41, N42).
机译：1930年代的新政可以说是美国历史上联邦政府活动中最大的和平时期扩张。直到最近，对各种新政计划对微观经济影响的定量测试还很少。在过去的十年中，学者们为县，市和州开发了新的面板数据库，然后使用面板上的面板数据方法检查了新政支出和贷款政策对主要新政计划的影响。在大多数情况下，对影响的识别来自控制全国经济冲击后，同一地理位置内一段时间内的变化。许多研究还使用工具变量方法来控制内生性。研究发现，公共工程和救济支出的国家收入乘数约为1，消费活动增加，吸引了国内移民，犯罪率降低，死亡率降低了几种。农场计划通常为大型农场主提供帮助，但消除了共享农作物，租户和农场工人的机会。房主贷款公司对问题抵押贷款的购买和再融资避免了房价和房屋所有权价格的下跌，而纳税人的事后成本却相对较低。尽管RFC拥有所有权时，银行得到了援助，但Reconstruction Finance Corporation向银行和铁路公司提供的贷款似乎收效甚微。 （JEL D72，E61，L52，N41，N42）。

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