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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of economic studies >Military spending, armed conflict and economic growth in developing countries in the post-Cold War era
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Military spending, armed conflict and economic growth in developing countries in the post-Cold War era

机译：后冷战时代发展中国家的军事支出，武装冲突和经济增长

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Purpose - While the relationship between military expenditure and economic growth during the Cold War period is well-researched, relatively less is known on the issue for the post-Cold War era. Equally how the relationship varies with respect to exposure to conflict is also not fully examined. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the causal impact of military expenditure on growth in the presence of internal and external threats for the period 1990-2013 using data from 70 developing countries. Design/methodology/approach - The main estimates are based on the generalized method of moments (GMM) regression model. But for comparison purposes, the authors also report estimates using fixed and random effects as well as pooled cross-section regressions. The regression specification accounts for nonlinear effect of military expenditure allowing for interaction with conflict variable (where distinction is made between external and internal conflict). Findings - The analysis indicates that methods as well as model specification matter in studying the effect of military spending on growth. Full sample estimates based on GMM, fixed, and random effects models suggest a negative and statistically significant effect of military expenditure. However, fixed effects estimate becomes insignificant for low-income countries. The effect of military spending is also insignificant in the cross-sectional OLS model if conflict is not considered. When the regression model additionally controls for conflict, the effect of military spending conditional upon (internal) conflict exposure is significant and positive. No such effect is present conditional upon external threat. Research limitations/implications - One important limitation of the analysis is the small sample size -the authors had to restrict analysis to 70 low and middle-income countries for which the authors could construct post-Cold War panel data on military expenditure along with information on armed conflict exposure (the later from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, 2015). Originality/value - To the best of the author's knowledge, this is the first paper to examine the joint impact of military expenditure and conflict on economic growth in post-Cold War period in a sample of developing countries. Moreover, an attempt is made to review and revisit the large Cold War literature where studies vary considerably in terms findings. A key reason for this is the somewhat ad hoc choice of econometric methods -most rely on cross-section data and rarely conduct sensitivity analysis. The authors instead rely on panel data estimates but also report results based on naive models for comparison purposes.
机译：目的-尽管对冷战时期军事支出与经济增长之间的关系进行了深入研究，但在冷战后时代对该问题的了解相对较少。同样，也没有充分研究这种关系在接触冲突方面如何变化。因此，本文的目的是使用来自70个发展中国家的数据，调查1990-2013年期间在存在内部和外部威胁的情况下军事支出对经济增长的因果影响。设计/方法/方法-主要估计是基于广义矩（GMM）回归模型的。但是出于比较目的，作者还报告了使用固定效应和随机效应以及汇总横截面回归进行的估计。回归规范考虑了军事支出的非线性影响，该影响允许与冲突变量进行交互（在内部和外部冲突之间进行区分）。研究结果-分析表明，方法和模型规格对研究军事支出对增长的影响至关重要。基于GMM，固定效应和随机效应模型的全部样本估计值表明，军费开支产生了负面影响并具有统计学意义。但是，固定收益估计对于低收入国家而言微不足道。如果不考虑冲突，则在横截面OLS模型中，军费支出的影响也微不足道。当回归模型另外控制冲突时，以（内部）冲突暴露为条件的军费开支将是显着且积极的。没有这种影响取决于外部威胁。研究的局限性/意义-分析的一个重要局限性是样本量太小-作者必须将分析限制在70个中低收入国家/地区，作者可以针对这些国家/地区构建冷战后军事支出小组数据以及有关武装冲突暴露（后来来自《乌普萨拉冲突数据计划》，2015年）。原创性/价值-就作者所知，这是第一份研究样本的文章，研究了冷战后时期军事支出和冲突对经济增长的联合影响。此外，人们试图回顾和重新审视大量的冷战文献，在这些文献中，研究结果的差异很大。这样做的一个关键原因是计量经济学方法的临时选择-大多数依赖于横截面数据，很少进行敏感性分析。作者转而依靠专家组的数据估计，而且还基于幼稚模型报告结果以进行比较。

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