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The Impact of Probabilistic Modeling in Life-Cycle Management of Nuclear Piping Systems

机译：概率建模对核管道系统生命周期管理的影响

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摘要

Flow accelerated corrosion (FAC) is a serious form of degradation in primary heat transport piping system (PHTS) of the nuclear reactor. Pipes transporting hot coolant from the reactor to steam generators are particularly vulnerable to FAC degradation, such as tight radius pipe bends with high flow velocity. FAC is a life limiting factor, as excessive degradation can result in the loss of structural integrity of the pipe. To prevent this, engineering codes and regulations have specified minimum wall thickness requirements to ensure fitness for service of the piping system. Nuclear utilities have implemented periodic wall thickness inspection programs and carried out replacement of pipes prior to reaching an unsafe state. To optimize the life-cycle management of PHTS, accurate prediction of time of replacement or "end of life " of pipe sections is important. Since FAC is a time-dependent process of uncertain nature, this paper presents two probabilistic models for predicting the end of life. This paper illustrates that the modeling assumptions have a significant impact on the predicted number of replacements and life-cycle management of the nuclear piping system. A practical case study is presented using wall thickness inspection data collected from Canadian nuclear plants.
机译：流动加速腐蚀（FAC）是核反应堆一次换热管道系统（PHTS）退化的一种严重形式。将热的冷却剂从反应堆输送到蒸汽发生器的管道特别容易受到FAC降解的影响，例如高流速的小半径弯管。 FAC是寿命限制因素，因为过度降解会导致管道结构完整性的损失。为避免这种情况，工程规范和法规规定了最小壁厚要求，以确保适合管道系统的服务。核电厂已实施了定期的壁厚检查计划，并在达到不安全状态之前进行了管道更换。为了优化PHTS的生命周期管理，准确预测管段的更换时间或“寿命终止”很重要。由于FAC是不确定性的时间依赖性过程，因此本文提出了两种概率模型来预测使用寿命。本文说明了建模假设对核管道系统的预计更换数量和生命周期管理有重大影响。利用从加拿大核电厂收集的壁厚检查数据，提出了一个实际案例研究。

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  • 来源
    《Journal of Engineering for Gas Turbines and Power》 |2011年第1期|p.012901.1-012901.7|共7页
  • 作者

    M. D. Pandey; D. Lu; D. Komljenovic;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, N2L 3G1, Canada;

    Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, N2L 3G1, Canada;

    Nuclear Generating Station Gentilly-2, Hydro-Quebec 75, Boulevard Rene-Levesque, West Montreal, QC, H2Z1A4, Canada;

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