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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Environmental Economics and Management >An imperfect storm: Fat-tailed tropical cyclone damages, insurance, and climate policy
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An imperfect storm: Fat-tailed tropical cyclone damages, insurance, and climate policy

机译：一场不完美的风暴：胖尾热带气旋的破坏，保险和气候政策

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We perform two tests that estimate the mass of the upper tail of the distribution of aggregate US tropical cyclone damages. Both tests reject the hypothesis that the distribution of damages is thin tailed at the 95% confidence level, even after correcting for inflation and growth in population and per capita income. Our point estimates of the shape parameter of the damage distribution indicate that the distribution has finite mean, but infinite variance.In the second part of the paper, we develop a microfoundations model of insurance and storm size that generates a fat tail in aggregate tropical cyclone damages. The distribution of the number of properties within a random geographical area that lies in the path of a tropical cyclone is shown to drive fat tailed storm damages, and we confirm that the distribution of coastal city population is fat tailed in the US. We show empirically and theoretically that other random variation, such as the distribution of storm strength and the distribution of damages across individual properties, does not generate a fat tail. We consider policy options such as climate change abatement, policies which encourage adaptation, reducing subsidies for coastal development, and disaster relief policies, which distort insurance markets. Such policies can reduce the thickness of the tail, but do not affect the shape parameter or the existence of the fat tail.
机译：我们进行了两项测试，这些测试估计了美国热带气旋损害的总体分布的上尾。两种检验都拒绝了这样一种假设，即即使在校正了通货膨胀，人口和人均收入增长之后，损害分布在95％的置信水平上也很薄。我们对损害分布形状参数的点估计表明该分布具有有限的均值，但方差是无限的。在本文的第二部分中，我们建立了保险和风暴规模的微观基础模型，该模型在聚集热带气旋中产生肥尾损害赔偿。研究表明，在热带气旋路径上随机地理区域内，财产数量的分布会造成风暴造成的巨额尾巴破坏，并且我们确认，在美国沿海城市人口的分布也存在巨尾巴。我们从经验和理论上表明，其他随机变化（如风暴强度的分布和各个属性的破坏分布）不会产生粗尾。我们考虑了各种政策选择，例如减少气候变化，鼓励适应的政策，减少对沿海发展的补贴，以及relief灾政策，这些政策扭曲了保险市场。这样的策略可以减小尾巴的厚度，但是不影响形状参数或胖尾巴的存在。

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