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China's pilot emissions trading schemes and competitiveness: An empirical analysis of the provincial industrial sub-sectors

机译：中国试点排放权交易计划和竞争力：对省级工业子行业的实证分析

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摘要

China's economic development has entered a "new normal" stage where economic growth has slowed down. In this context, China's local authorities and industry circles are particularly concerned about the impact of emissions trading scheme (ETS), China's first major market-based approach to control greenhouse gas emissions, on competitiveness. This paper contributes to the thin empirical studies on this issue from the perspective of China's provincial industrial sub-sectors. We divide the industry of each province into 37 sub-sectors and screen the actual industrial sub-sector coverage of China's pilot ETSs. Taking advantage of the rich information of sub-sector characteristics and the longitudinal structure of our dataset over 2005-2015, we use a combination of propensity score matching technique and difference-in-difference models to analyze the impact of China's pilot ETSs on gross industrial output value (GIOV) and employment. Empirical results indicate that China's pilot ETSs have exerted a negative impact on the GIOV, and production cut is still the major approach to achieve carbon emission reductions. We also find China's pilot ETSs have led to a significant decrease in employment of the covered industrial sub-sectors. Several robustness checks confirm our findings. Further, our discussions suggest that in the short term, China's pilot ETSs have not promoted the "decoupling" of carbon emissions and economic outputs in industrial sub-sectors. While achieving carbon emission reductions, the pilot ETSs have failed to avoid a negative impact on competitiveness. Lastly, we suggest that competent authorities should prudently tailor the quota allocation methods according to sectorial conditions and consider setting up compensation measures, and covered enterprises should incorporate low-carbon development concept and address the challenges proactively from the long run.
机译：中国经济发展进入“新常态”阶段，经济增长放缓。在这种情况下，中国地方当局和行业界特别关注排放交易计划（ETS）对中国竞争力的影响。排放交易计划是中国第一个主要的基于市场的控制温室气体排放的方法。本文从中国省级工业分行业的角度，为这一问题的薄实证研究做出了贡献。我们将每个省的行业划分为37个子行业，并筛选了中国试点排放交易体系的实际工业子行业覆盖范围。利用2005-2015年子行业特征的丰富信息和数据集的纵向结构，我们结合使用了倾向得分匹配技术和差异模型，分析了中国试点碳交易体系对工业总产值的影响。产值和就业。实证结果表明，中国的试点排放交易体系对政府的工业生产总值产生了负面影响，减产仍然是实现碳减排的主要途径。我们还发现，中国的试点排放交易体系已导致相关工业子行业的就业显着减少。几项健壮性检查证实了我们的发现。此外，我们的讨论表明，在短期内，中国的试点排放交易体系并没有促进工业子行业的碳排放与经济产出“脱钩”。在实现碳减排的同时，试点排放交易体系未能避免对竞争力产生负面影响。最后，我们建议主管当局应根据部门情况审慎地制定配额分配方法，并考虑制定补偿措施，涵盖企业应纳入低碳发展理念并从长远来看积极应对挑战。

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