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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Environmental Management >Adaptive management and water temperature variability within a South African river system: What are the management options?
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Adaptive management and water temperature variability within a South African river system: What are the management options?

机译：南非河流系统内的自适应管理和水温可变性：有哪些管理选项？

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摘要

Water temperatures, and in particular daily maximum water temperatures, are a critical water quality parameter. An understanding of associated resource management issues, including links between water temperature variability and aquatic diversity values, should be part of any management programme that considers river systems. Simple rule-based models have been shown to be appropriate tools within an adaptive management approach, both because of their heuristic value and in their application for scenario generation. Such a model was developed to simulate changes in the condition factor of Chiloglanis anoterus [Crass, R.S., 1960. Notes on the freshwater fishes of Natal with descriptions of 4 new species. Annals of the Natal Museum 14, 405-458] (Pisces: Mochokidae) in response to annual frequency of exceedance of a threshold temperature under three broad environmental scenarios for part of the Sabie River falling within South Africa's Kruger National Park. This model has potential for application within the adaptive management programme being implemented by the Kruger National Park. Results show that under broad scenarios of a 10% reduction in mean daily flow rates, or a 2 degrees C increase in mean daily air temperatures, system variability is likely to increase relative to reference conditions. It is suggested that so-called "thresholds of probable concern" (TPCs), which are based on current levels of "natural" system variability, are useful as management targets for achieving a "desired future state" for the river system. The model, recognised as a preliminary hypothesis, highlights a lack of knowledge regarding the nature of system variability, and the correspondingly wide confidence limits of the proposed TPC restricts its utility in a short-term management context. Thus, it is now recognised that its value lies more in its use as a long-term modelling tool to reflect water temperature responses to flow variability. This highlights the fact that research outcomes may not always be those intended at the beginning of a project and that opportunities to implement these may be lost as lags in understanding relative to project lifetimes often exist. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：水温，尤其是每日最高水温是关键的水质参数。对相关资源管理问题的理解，包括水温可变性和水生多样性值之间的联系，应该成为任何考虑河流系统的管理计划的一部分。简单的基于规则的模型已被证明是自适应管理方法中的合适工具，这既因为其启发式价值，又由于其在场景生成中的应用。开发了这样的模型以模拟Chiloglanis anoterus [Crass，R.S.，1960年。Natal的淡水鱼的注释，并描述了4个新物种。纳塔尔博物馆年鉴14，第405-458页]（双鱼座：Mochokidae）对在南非克鲁格国家公园内部分萨比河的三种广泛环境情景下，每年超过阈值温度的频率做出的响应。该模型具有在克鲁格国家公园实施的自适应管理程序中应用的潜力。结果表明，在每天平均流量降低10％或每天平均气温升高2摄氏度的广泛情况下，系统可变性可能会相对于参考条件增加。建议基于当前“自然”系统可变性水平的所谓“可能的关注阈值”（TPC）作为实现河流系统“期望的未来状态”的管理目标很有用。该模型被认为是一个初步的假设，它突出表明了对系统可变性本质的了解，而相应的拟议TPC的置信度范围较宽，限制了其在短期管理中的效用。因此，现在已经认识到，其价值更多地在于将其用作反映水温对流量变化的长期建模工具。这凸显了这样一个事实，即研究成果不一定总是项目开始时就打算的，而且由于经常存在相对于项目生命周期的理解滞后，因此可能失去实施这些成果的机会。 （c）2006 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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