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Geostatistical spatiotemporal analysis of air temperature as an aid to delineating thermal stability zones in a potential show cave: Implications for environmental management

机译:气温的地统计时空分析,以帮助划定潜在的热稳定性区显示洞穴:对环境管理的影响

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Air temperature in several galleries of the Covadura System (Sorbas Gypsum Karst, Almeria) was measured at monthly intervals over a period of I year. The spatial temperature distribution for each month was modeled in a geostatistical framework. The mean trend of the air temperature and the difference between each experimental temperature measurement and this trend were calculated over space and time. Both the trend and residual component were characterized using a geostatistical space-time model. A large spatial trend of the air temperature was found due to the orientation of galleries within the cave system and as a function of the distance from the main cave entrance. Kriging was used for the spatial estimation of the time covariance of the residuals. This enabled the delimitation of the cave into three zones of varying environmental risk in the event of being opened to visits by the public, according to the degree of stability of air temperature over space and time. The influence of human presence on the spatial temperature distribution was assessed using data collected during a year (2000/2001) in pilot galleries opened to the public. An average visit corresponding to August was selected comprising 16 people over a period of 53 min. This average visit influenced the spatial temperature pattern at distances of more than 90 m from the cave entrance, according to the geostatistical model adopted. Within this zone the mean thermal increment generated by human presence was estimated to be 0.26 degrees C. The spatiotemporal mathematical model of the cave air temperature has been revealed as a useful tool for the environmental management of show caves. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译:在一年的时间内,每月间隔一次,对Covadura系统(Sorbas Gypsum Karst,阿尔梅里亚)的几个画廊的空气温度进行测量。每个月的空间温度分布在地统计框架中建模。随时间和空间计算出气温的平均趋势以及每次实验测得的温度之间的差异。趋势分量和残差分量均使用地统计时空模型进行了特征描述。由于洞穴系统内画廊的方向以及与洞穴主要入口的距离的函数关系,发现了气温的大空间趋势。克里金法用于残差的时间协方差的空间估计。根据空气在空间和时间上的稳定程度,在允许公众参观时,可以将洞穴划分为三个具有不同环境风险的区域。使用一年(2000/2001年)在向公众开放的试点画廊中收集的数据,评估了人类存在对空间温度分布的影响。在53分钟的时间内,选择了与8月份相对应的平均访问量,其中包括16人。根据所采用的地统计学模型,平均访问次数影响了距洞穴入口90 m以上的空间温度模式。在该区域内,人类存在所产生的平均热量增量估计为0.26摄氏度。洞穴空气温度的时空数学模型已被揭示为展示洞穴的环境管理的有用工具。 (c)2006 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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