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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Environmental Management >An ensemble experiment of mathematical programming models to assess socio-economic effects of agricultural water pricing reform in the Piedmont Region, Italy
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An ensemble experiment of mathematical programming models to assess socio-economic effects of agricultural water pricing reform in the Piedmont Region, Italy

机译：数学规划模型的集合试验，从意大利山麓地区农业水价改革的社会经济影响

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摘要

The Piedmont Region in NW Italy has recently deployed an ambitious and pioneering agricultural water pricing reform aimed at integrating and effectively enforcing EU's Water Framework Directive principles of cost recovery, polluter-pays and affordability. This paper develops a multi-model ensemble framework encompassing 5 mathematical programming models (2 Positive Mathematical Programming models, 2 Positive Multi-Attribute Utility Programming models and 1 Weighted Goal Programming model) that represent the observed behavior of socioeconomic agents to: 1) simulate the impacts of the Piedmontese water pricing reform on land use allocation and management, water conservation, profit and water tariff revenue; 2) sample modeling uncertainty through the ensemble spread; and 3) explore potential tipping points through use of scenario-discovery techniques. Our research suggests that the key challenge to the reform lies in the management of rice fields, an extensive (17% of the agricultural area), water-demanding and relatively low-added-value crop that nonetheless delivers significant ecosystem services (e.g. water retention) of historical and cultural relevance to the region. The ensemble experiment suggests that rice agriculture rapidly dwindles in the price range 0.012-0.074 EUR/m3 depending on the model. Before reaching this tipping point, agricultural water pricing can reduce withdrawals up to 1.7%-9.5%, while reducing profit between 4.9% and 5.6% and achieving a 57- to 65-fold increase in water tariff revenue.
机译：意大利的皮埃蒙特地区最近部署了一个雄心勃勃，开拓的农业水价改革，旨在整合和有效地实施欧盟的水框架指令原则成本回收，污染者支付和负担能力。本文开发了多模型集合框架，包括5个数学编程模型（2个正数数学编程模型，2个正数值实用程序编程模型和1个加权目标编程模型），其代表了社会经济代理的观察到的行为：1）模拟皮埃蒙特水价改革对土地利用分配和管理，水资源，利润和水费收入的影响; 2）通过集合传播来模拟不确定性的样本; 3）通过使用场景发现技术探索潜在的策划点。我们的研究表明，改革的关键挑战在于稻田的管理，广泛（占农业面积的17％），急需和相对较低的价值作物，即仍提供重要的生态系统服务（例如保险）与该地区的历史和文化相关性。该集合实验表明，稻米农业在价格范围内快速消失，取决于该模型的价格范围0.012-0.074欧元/ m3。在达到这一举报之前，农业水价可以减少提取高达1.7％-9.5％，同时降低了4.9％和5.6％的利润，达到水资源收入增加57至65倍。

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