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Characterizing regional-scale temporal evolution of air dose rates after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident

机译:福岛第一核电站事故后空气剂量率的区域尺度时间演变特征

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摘要

In this study, we quantify the temporal changes of air dose rates in the regional scale around the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in Japan, and predict the spatial distribution of air dose rates in the future. We first apply the Bayesian geostatistical method developed by Wainwright et al. (2017) to integrate multiscale datasets including ground-based walk and car surveys, and airborne surveys, all of which have different scales, resolutions, spatial coverage, and accuracy. This method is based on geostatistics to represent spatial heterogeneous structures, and also on Bayesian hierarchical models to integrate multiscale, multi-type datasets in a consistent manner. We apply this method to the datasets from three years: 2014 to 2016. The temporal changes among the three integrated maps enables us to characterize the spatiotemporal dynamics of radiation air dose rates. The data-driven ecological decay model is then coupled with the integrated map to predict future dose rates. Results show that the air dose rates are decreasing consistently across the region. While slower in the forested region, the decrease is particularly significant in the town area. The decontamination has contributed to significant reduction of air dose rates. By 2026, the air dose rates will continue to decrease, and the area above 3.8 mu Sv/h will be almost fully contained within the non-residential forested zone.
机译:在这项研究中,我们量化了日本福岛第一核电站周围区域范围内空气剂量率的时间变化,并预测了未来空气剂量率的空间分布。我们首先应用Wainwright等人开发的贝叶斯地统计方法。 (2017)集成了多尺度数据集,包括地面步行和汽车测量以及机载测量,所有这些都有不同的尺度,分辨率,空间覆盖范围和准确性。该方法基于地统计学来表示空间异构结构,还基于贝叶斯层次模型以一致的方式集成多尺度,多类型数据集。我们将此方法应用于2014年至2016年这三年中的数据集。这三个集成图之间的时间变化使我们能够表征辐射空气剂量率的时空动态。然后,将数据驱动的生态衰减模型与集成图结合起来,以预测未来的剂量率。结果表明,整个地区的空气剂量率一直在下降。虽然森林地区的速度较慢,但​​减少量在城镇地区尤为明显。去污已大大降低了空气剂量率。到2026年,空气剂量率将继续降低,非住宅林区将几乎完全覆盖3.8亩Sv / h以上的区域。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Journal of Environmental Radioactivity》 |2018年第9期|213-220|共8页
  • 作者单位

    Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, Earth Sci Div, 1 Cyclotron Rd,MS 74R-316C, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA;

    Japan Atom Energy Agcy, 2-4 Shirakata, Tokai, Ibaraki 3191195, Japan;

    Japan Atom Energy Agcy, 7-1 Omachi, Iwaki, Fukushima 9708026, Japan;

    Japan Atom Energy Agcy, Chiyoda Ku, 2-2-2 Uchisawai Cho, Tokyo 1000011, Japan;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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