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The signs of change in economic evolution: An analysis of directional, stabilizing and diversifying selection based on Price's equation

机译:经济发展变化的迹象:基于Price方程的定向,稳定​​和多样化选择分析

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Neo-Schumpeterian evolutionary economics has, since the early works of Nelson and Winter, defined evolution as the change of the mean of a characteristic of a population. This paper trancends the previous paradigm and explores novel aspects of evolution in economics. Within the traditional paradigm change is provided by directional selection (and directional innovation). However, the full definition of evolutionary processes has to include two important types of selection that change the variance without necessarily changing the mean. Stabilizing selection removes any outlier and diversifying selection promotes the coexistence of behavioural variants. This paper emphasizes the need for an integrated analysis of all three types of selection. It also demonstrates that the evolutionary algebra provided by Price's equation increases the intellectual coherence and power of thinking about selection and other aspects of evolutionary processes. Directional, stabilizing and diversifying selection are then related to fitness functions that can produce the different types of selection; and the functions are used for simple simulations of the change of the population distribution of a quantitative characteristic. Finally, the paper adds to evolutionary economics a novel way of using Price's equation to decompose the statistics of the changes of the frequency distributions. The changes of mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis are all decomposed as the sum of a selection effect and an intra-member effect. It is especially the signs of these effects that serve to define and characterize the different types of selection. Both this result and the general analysis of the types of selection are of relevance for applied evolutionary economics.
机译:自从尼尔森和温特的早期著作以来,新熊彼特主义的进化经济学将进化定义为人口特征均值的变化。本文超越了以前的范式,并探讨了经济学演化的新颖方面。在传统范式内,变化是由方向选择(和方向创新)提供的。但是,进化过程的完整定义必须包括两种重要的选择类型,它们可以改变方差而不必改变均值。稳定选择可以消除任何异常,选择多样化可以促进行为变体的共存。本文强调需要对所有三种类型的选择进行综合分析。它也证明了Price方程提供的进化代数增加了关于选择和进化过程其他方面的思维连贯性和力量。然后,方向性,稳定性和多样化选择与可以产生不同类型选择的适应度函数相关;该函数用于简单模拟定量特征的人口分布变化。最后,本文为进化经济学增加了一种使用Price方程分解频率分布变化统计量的新颖方法。均值,方差,偏度和峰度的变化都分解为选择效应和成员内效应的总和。这些效果的标志尤其是可以定义和表征不同类型的选择。这个结果和选择类型的一般分析都与应用进化经济学有关。

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