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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology >Is climate change affecting the population dynamics of the endangered Pacific loggerhead sea turtle?
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Is climate change affecting the population dynamics of the endangered Pacific loggerhead sea turtle?

机译：气候变化是否会影响濒临灭绝的太平洋红海龟的种群动态？

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The loggerhead sea turtle is an endangered species exposed to many anthropogenic hazards in the Pacific. It is widely held that pelagic longline fisheries pose the major risk for Pacific loggerheads but the effects of other risk factors such as human-induced global climate change have rarely been considered. So we used generalised additive regression modelling and autoregressive-prewhitened cross-correlation analysis to explore whether regional ocean temperatures affect the long-term nesting population dynamics for the 2 Pacific loggerhead genetic stocks (Japan, Australia). We found that both Pacific stocks have been exposed to slowly increasing trends in mean annual sea surface temperature in their respective core regional foraging habitats over the past 50 years. We show that irrespective of whether a population was decreasing or increasing that there was an inverse correlation between nesting abundance and mean annual sea surface temperature in the core foraging region during the year prior to the summer nesting season. Cooler foraging habitat ocean temperatures are presumably associated with increased ocean productivity and prey abundance and consequently increased loggerhead breeding capacity. So warming regional ocean temperatures could lead to long-term decreased food supply and reduced nesting and recruitment unless Pacific loggerheads adapt by shifting their foraging habitat to cooler regions. So the gradual warming of the Pacific Ocean over the past 50 years is a major risk factor that must be considered in any meaningful diagnosis of the long-term declines apparent for some Pacific loggerhead nesting populations.
机译：logger海龟是一种濒临灭绝的物种，在太平洋地区面临许多人为危害。人们普遍认为，远洋延绳钓渔业是太平洋海的主要风险，但很少考虑其他风险因素（如人为引起的全球气候变化）的影响。因此，我们使用广义加性回归建模和自回归-预增白互相关分析来探讨区域海洋温度是否影响了两个太平洋头遗传种群（日本，澳大利亚）的长期筑巢种群动态。我们发现，过去50年中，这两个太平洋种群都处于各自核心区域觅食生境的平均年海表温度缓慢上升趋势中。我们表明，无论种群是减少还是增加，在夏季筑巢季节之前的一年中，核心觅食区的筑巢丰度与年平均海表温度之间都存在反相关关系。觅食栖息地海洋温度较低可能与增加海洋生产力和猎物丰富度有关，从而增加了的繁殖能力。因此，除非太平洋顶头通过将觅食栖息地转移到较凉爽的地区来适应气候变化，否则区域海洋温度的升高可能导致长期食物供应减少，嵌套和补给减少。因此，在过去的50年中，太平洋逐渐变暖是主要的危险因素，在对某些太平洋红筑巢种群的长期下降明显进行有意义的诊断时，必须考虑这一因素。

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