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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Financial Economic Policy >Unexpected inflation and cyclic impacts of policy tools on key economic variables - revealed by the assessment ratio
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Unexpected inflation and cyclic impacts of policy tools on key economic variables - revealed by the assessment ratio

机译：通货膨胀率和政策工具对关键经济变量的周期性影响-评估率表明

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Purpose — The purpose of this paper is twofold, first, to develop an effective tool to assess the performance of the overall economy by creating an assessment ratio that reflects the two top priorities of monetary policy, promoting economic growth and maintaining price stability, and second, to use the annual assessment ratios to build two subsamples, outperformance (better than the historical average) and underperformance, to examine and compare the changes in impacts of monetary and fiscal policy tools on important economic variables in different economic conditions, instead of different time periods. Design/methodology/approach — The assessment ratio is defined as the gross domestic product (GDP) gap/standard deviation of inflation. Essentially, this Growth/Volatility ratio quantifies the price volatility-adjusted long-term output growth, that is, the long-term output growth given 1 per cent of the standard deviation of inflation. The growth has a positive impact on the ratio, while the effect of price volatility is negative. The ratio reflects not only the Fed's dual goal but also the fundamental economic conditions. A higher value of the ratio indicates that the economy can better handle inflation risk in driving the long-term output growth. As the inflation level is adjusted in the numerator (GDP gap), not the denominator, no matter the Fed is engaging in the fight against inflation, or for reflation (promoting inflation) to prevent deflation and pursue price stability (Bernanke, 2002), the ratio remains consistent with the Fed's dual goal and prefers a higher value. Findings — Results of this study suggest that impacts of monetary and fiscal policy tools on key economic variables may be cyclic as the economic condition changes. The policy tools can significantly affect inflation volatility and the price volatility-adjusted long-term real output growth in the subpar economic conditions identified with lower assessment ratios. The effects become insignificant when the general economic performance exceeds the historical average. More importantly, results of this study indicate that the funds rate can effectively lower the price volatility, while the fiscal tools can promote long-term real output growth in the subpar economic conditions. Therefore, when inflation volatility spikes and the real output growth slows, the decisive and timely monetary and fiscal policy decisions become necessary to enhance policy effectiveness. Originality/value — The assessments of effectiveness of monetary policy in the literature are based on some or all of four descriptive statistics: inflation, inflation volatility, output growth, and growth volatility. Each of them measures only one aspect of an economic phenomenon and cannot reflect the well-known conflicting relationship between maintaining price stability and promoting economic growth. For instance, from the policy perspective, a higher price volatility combined with a higher GDP growth rate for one period may or may not outperform another period with lower price volatility and growth rate. However, the assessment ratio created in this study considers both price volatility and economic growth simultaneously and can, therefore, be used as an effective measure of the overall economic performance.
机译：目的-本文的目的是双重的，首先，通过创建反映货币政策的两个最高优先事项，促进经济增长和维持价格稳定的评估比率，开发一种有效的工具来评估整体经济表现，其次是第二。 ，使用年度评估比率建立两个子样本，即表现优于（高于历史平均水平）和表现不佳的样本，以检查和比较货币政策和财政政策工具对不同经济条件下（而非不同时间）对重要经济变量的影响的变化期。设计/方法/方法-评估比率定义为国内生产总值（GDP）差距/通货膨胀标准差。本质上，该增长/波动率比率量化了经价格波动调整后的长期产出增长，即，在通胀标准偏差的1％的情况下，长期产出增长。增长对比率产生积极影响，而价格波动的影响则为负面。该比率不仅反映了美联储的双重目标，而且反映了基本的经济状况。该比率的较高值表示经济可以更好地应对通货膨胀风险，从而推动长期产出增长。由于通货膨胀水平是通过分子（GDP差距）而不是分母进行调整的，无论美联储是在与通货膨胀作斗争还是为了通货紧缩（促进通货膨胀）以防止通货紧缩并追求价格稳定（Bernanke，2002年），该比率与美联储的双重目标保持一致，并倾向于更高的价值。结果—研究结果表明，随着经济状况的变化，货币和财政政策工具对关键经济变量的影响可能是周期性的。在以较低的评估比率确定的劣等经济条件下，政策工具会严重影响通货膨胀率的波动和经价格波动调整后的长期实际产出的增长。当总体经济表现超过历史平均水平时，影响将变得微不足道。更重要的是，这项研究的结果表明，资金利率可以有效地降低价格波动，而财政工具可以在低于标准的经济条件下促进长期的实际产出增长。因此，当通货膨胀率峰值激增而实际产出增长放慢时，必须采取果断而及时的货币和财政政策决定，以提高政策效力。原创性/价值-文献中货币政策有效性的评估基于四个或四个描述性统计数据：通货膨胀，通货膨胀波动率，产出增长和增长波动率。它们每个都只衡量一种经济现象的一个方面，不能反映维持价格稳定和促进经济增长之间众所周知的相互矛盾的关系。例如，从政策角度来看，一个时期内较高的价格波动率和较高的GDP增长率可能会或可能不会优于另一时期内价格波动率和增长率较低的时期。但是，本研究创建的评估比率同时考虑了价格波动和经济增长，因此可以用作衡量整体经济绩效的有效指标。

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