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Pattern of public debt and debt overhang among BRICS nations: an empirical analysis

机译：金砖国家公共债务和债务垄断模式：实证分析

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Purpose - This paper aims to analyze the pattern of public debt in Brazil, Russian Federation, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) in a comparative perspective. Besides, an attempt is made to verify the existence of debt overhang as suggested by Krugman (1988) among BRICS nations. Design/methodology/approach - Annual panel data for BRICS for the period 1980-2016 has been used for the analysis. Percentage ratio method has been used to analyze the pattern of debt. Panel covariate augmented Dickey-Fuller (pCADF) test has been used to verify the time series properties of the variable, while panel cointegration test of Pedroni (1999) is used to check the existence of any co-integrating vector among the variables. Panel Granger causality test is used to check the causality between the variables. Findings - Co-integration result suggests that there exists a strong long-run equilibrium relationship between debt service, domestic savings, capital formation and economic growth of BRICS nations. From Granger causality test, it is observed that domestic savings and capital formation are Granger caused by debt servicing. The coefficients from fully modified ordinary least squares measure a negative impact of debt service on gross capital formation and gross domestic saving. This suggests that the payment for debt service affects capital formation and gross domestic savings adversely. Thus, it gives primary signals for debt overhang effect in BRICS nations. Practical implications - Allowing debt service to negatively affect the investment and potential investment will result in slowdown or stagnation in economic growth in the long run, so strategies need to be taken in BRICS nations to check the adverse effects of rising level of debt-service-payment-to-gross national income ratio on domestic savings and capital formation. BRICS nations need to reduce their debt service payment by undertaking appropriate strategy of debt overhaul and fiscal management so that domestic savings and capital formation in the country will not be adversely affected. Besides, BRICS nations need to take measures to augment its domestic savings and capital formations. Originality/value - To the best of the authors' knowledge, no published works have analyzed the pattern of public debt for BRICS (major developing nations). Debt servicing is also not checked for BRICS in recent papers, considering overhang approach.
机译：目的 - 本文旨在以比较的观点分析巴西，俄罗斯联邦，印度，中国和南非（金砖）的公共债务模式。此外，试图验证Krugman（1988）在国内国家建议的债务突出的存在。设计/方法/方法 - 1980-2016期间金砖建筑年面板数据已被用于分析。百分比比例方法已被用于分析债务模式。面板协变量增强DICKEY-FULLER（PCADF）测试已被用于验证变量的时间序列属性，而PEDRONI（1999）的面板协整测试用于检查变量中的任何共集合矢量的存在。面板格兰杰因果关系测试用于检查变量之间的因果关系。调查结果 - 共同整合结果表明，债务服务之间存在强大的长期均衡关系，国内储蓄，资本形成和金砖国家经济增长。从Granger因果关系测试中，据指出，国内储蓄和资本形成是由债务维修引起的格兰杰。来自完全改性的普通最小二乘的系数测量债务服务对总资本形成和国内总储蓄的负面影响。这表明债务服务支付会影响资本形成和国内总济不利。因此，它为金砖国家提供了债务突出效应的主要信号。实际影响 - 允许债务服务对投资和潜在投资产生负面影响，从长远来看，经济增长的放缓或停滞不前，因此需要在金砖国国家进行战略，以检查债务服务水平上升的不利影响 - 国内储蓄和资本形成的支付至关重要的国民收入比。金砖公司需要通过采取适当的债务大修和财政管理策略来减少债务服务付款，以便该国的国内储蓄和资本形成不会受到不利影响。此外，金砖国家需要采取措施来增加其国内储蓄和资本形成。原创性/价值 - 据作者所知，没有公布的作品分析了金砖金的公共债务模式（主要发展中国家）。在近期论文中也没有检查债务服务，考虑到悬垂的方法。

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