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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Financial Economic Policy >The macroeconomic effects of fiscal consolidation policies in Greece
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The macroeconomic effects of fiscal consolidation policies in Greece

机译：希腊财政巩固政策的宏观经济影响

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Purpose - This paper aims to investigate the effects of contractionary fiscal policy shocks on major Greek macroeconomic variables within a structural vector autoregression framework while accounting for debt dynamics. Design/methodology/approach - The sign restriction approach is applied to identify a linear combination of government spending and government revenue shock simultaneously while accounting for debt dynamics. Additionally, output and unemployment responses to fiscal shocks under different scenarios concerning the amalgamation of austerity measures are considered. Findings - The results indicate that a contractionary consumption policy shock, namely, a 1 per cent decrease in government consumption and a 1 per cent increase in indirect taxes, is preferred, as it produces a minor decrease in output and substantially decreases public debt, while a contractionary wage policy shock is suitable only when the government aims to sharply reduce public debt, as the consequences for the economy are harsh. A contractionary investment policy shock is not recommended, as it triggers a rise in unemployment and a fall in output, while the effect on the public debt is minor. Practical implications - Policymakers should focus their efforts on reducing unproductive government consumption on the expenditure side. Concerning revenues, the reinforcement of tax administration is recommended to ensure that indirect taxes will be collected. Originality/value - This paper contributes to the existing literature by providing a disaggregated analysis of the effects of fiscal policy actions in Greece by implementing several fiscal policy scenarios and accounting for the level of public debt. All scenarios are in the vein of the economic adjustment programs guidelines.
机译：目的-本文旨在研究结构性向量自回归框架内的紧缩财政政策冲击对希腊主要宏观经济变量的影响，同时考虑债务动态。设计/方法/方法-使用符号限制方法来同时确定政府支出和政府收入冲击的线性组合，同时考虑债务动态。此外，考虑了在紧缩措施合并的不同情况下产出和失业对财政冲击的反应。调查结果-结果表明，收缩性的消费政策冲击是可取的，即政府消费减少1％，间接税增加1％，因为这会导致产量略有下降并大大减少公共债务，而只有当政府打算大幅减少公共债务时，收缩工资政策的冲击才是合适的，因为这对经济造成了严重的后果。不建议采取紧缩性的投资政策冲击，因为它会引发失业率上升和产出下降，而对公共债务的影响很小。实际意义-决策者应集中精力减少支出方面的政府非生产性消费。关于收入，建议加强税收管理，以确保征收间接税。原创性/价值-本文通过实施几种财政政策情景并考虑公共债务水平，对希腊的财政政策行动效果进行了分类分析，从而为现有文献做出了贡献。所有方案均符合经济调整计划指南的规定。

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