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Decision fatigue and heuristic analyst forecasts

机译：决策疲劳和启发式分析师预测

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Psychological evidence indicates that decision quality declines after an extensive session of decision-making, a phenomenon known as decision fatigue. We study whether decision fatigue affects analysts' judgments. Analysts cover multiple firms and often issue several forecasts in a single day. We find that forecast accuracy declines over the course of a day as the number of forecasts the analyst has already issued increases. Also consistent with decision fatigue, we find that the more forecasts an analyst issues, the higher the likelihood the analyst resorts to more heuristic decisions by herding more closely with the consensus forecast, self-herding (i.e., reissuing their own previous outstanding forecasts), and issuing a rounded forecast. Finally, we find that the stock market understands these effects and discounts for analyst decision fatigue. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译：心理证据表明，经过大量的决策后，决策质量会下降，这种现象称为决策疲劳。我们研究决策疲劳是否会影响分析师的判断。分析师涉及多家公司，并且经常在一天之内发布多个预测。我们发现，随着分析师已经发布的预测数量的增加，预测准确性在一天当中会下降。同样与决策疲劳性相一致，我们发现分析师发布的预测越多，分析师越倾向于与共识预测紧密结合，自我保留（即重新发布自己以前的出色预测），则采取更多启发式决策的可能性就越大，并发布四舍五入的预测。最后，我们发现股市可以理解这些影响和折扣，从而减轻分析师的决策疲劳。 （C）2019 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。

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