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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of financial economics >Air pollution, affect, and forecasting bias: Evidence from Chinese financial analysts
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Air pollution, affect, and forecasting bias: Evidence from Chinese financial analysts

机译：空气污染，影响和预测偏见：来自中国金融分析师的证据

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摘要

We document a negative relation between air pollution during corporate site visits by investment analysts and subsequent earnings forecasts. After accounting for analyst, weather, and firm characteristics, an extreme worsening of air quality from "good/excellent" to "severely polluted" is associated with a more than 1 percentage point lower profit forecast, relative to realized profits. We explore heterogeneity in the pollution-forecast relation to understand better the underlying mechanism. Pollution only affects forecasts that are announced in the weeks immediately following a visit, indicating that mood likely plays a role, and the effect of pollution is less pronounced when analysts from different brokerages visit on the same date, suggesting a debiasing effect of multiple perspectives. Finally, there is suggestive evidence of adaptability to environmental circumstances - forecasts from analysts based in high pollution cities are relatively unaffected by site visit pollution. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译：我们通过投资分析师和随后的盈利预测记录了企业现场访问期间空气污染之间的负面关系。在分析师，天气和坚定的特征核算后，从“良好/优秀”到“严重污染”的空气质量极大地使空气质量与“严重污染”有关，与实现利润相比，利润预测超过1个百分点。我们探讨了污染预测关系中的异质性，了解更好的潜在机制。污染只会影响在访问后立即宣布的预测，表明情绪可能发挥作用，当不同经纪人访问同一日期的分析师时，污染的效果不太明显，这表明了多个观点的脱抗效应。最后，有暗示对环境环境适应性的暗示性证据 - 从高污染城市的分析师预测的预测相对不受现场访问污染的影响。 （c）2019 Elsevier B.v.保留所有权利。

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  • 来源
    《Journal of financial economics》 |2021年第3期|971-984|共14页
  • 作者

    Dong Rui; Fisman Raymond; Wang Yongxiang; Xu Nianhang;

  • 作者单位

    Renmin Univ China Sch Business Dept Finance Beijing 100872 Peoples R China;

    Boston Univ Econ Dept Room 304A Boston MA 02215 USA;

    Univ Southern Calif Marshall Sch Business Finance & Business Econ Dept HOH 716 Los Angeles CA 90089 USA|Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ Shanghai Adv Inst Finance Shanghai 200030 Peoples R China;

    Renmin Univ China Sch Business Dept Finance Beijing 100872 Peoples R China;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Pollution; Forecasting bias; Investment analysts; Adaptation;

    机译：污染;预测偏见;投资分析师;适应;

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