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Feedback effects of credit ratings

机译:信用评级的反馈效应

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摘要

Rating agencies are often criticized for being biased in favor of borrowers, for being too slow to downgrade following credit quality deterioration, and for being oligopolists. Based on a model that takes into account the feedback effects of credit ratings, I show that: (i) rating agencies should focus not only on the accuracy of their ratings but also on the effects of their ratings on the probability of survival of the borrower; (ii) even when rating agencies pursue an accurate rating policy, multi-notch downgrades or immediate default may occur in response to small shocks to fundamentals; (iii) increased competition between rating agencies can lead to rating downgrades, increasing default frequency and reducing welfare.
机译:评级机构经常因偏向借款人而受到批评,由于信贷质量恶化而太慢而不能降级,并且是寡头。基于考虑信用评级的反馈效应的模型,我表明:(i)评级机构不仅应关注其评级的准确性,还应关注其评级对借款人生存概率的影响; (ii)即使评级机构奉行准确的评级政策,也可能因对基本面的小冲击而出现多级降级或立即违约; (iii)评级机构之间的竞争加剧会导致评级下调,增加违约频率并降低福利。

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