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Predicting market returns using aggregate implied cost of capital

机译:使用总隐含资本成本预测市场回报

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摘要

Theoretically, the implied cost of capital (ICC) is a good proxy for time-varying expected returns. We find that aggregate ICC strongly predicts future excess market returns at horizons ranging from one month to four years. This predictive power persists even in the presence of popular valuation ratios and business cycle variables, both in-sample and out-of-sample, and is robust to alternative implementations. We also find that ICCs of size and book-to-market portfolios predict corresponding portfolio returns.
机译:从理论上讲,隐含资本成本(ICC)是时变期望收益的良好替代。我们发现,总体ICC强烈预测未来超额市场收益的范围为1个月到4年。即使存在流行的估值比率和商业周期变量(样本内和样本外),这种预测能力也仍然存在,并且对于替代实施具有鲁棒性。我们还发现,规模和账面市值投资组合的ICC可以预测相应的投资组合收益。

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