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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of geographical sciences >Potential control of climatic changes on flood events in the Yangtze Delta during 1100-2002
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Potential control of climatic changes on flood events in the Yangtze Delta during 1100-2002

机译：1100-2002年长江三角洲洪水事件的气候变化潜力控制

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摘要

Wide collection on the historic records of the climatic changes and flood events is performed in the Yangtze Delta. Man-Kendall (MK) method is applied to explore the changing trends of the time series of the flood discharge and the maximum high summer temperature. The research results indicate that the flood magnitudes increased during the transition from the medieval warm interval into the early Little Ice Age. Fluctuating climate changes of the Little Ice Age characterized by arid climate events followed by the humid and cold climate conditions give rise to the frequent flood hazards. Low-lying terrain made the study region prone to the flood hazards, storm tide and typhoon. MK analysis reveals that the jumping point of the time series of the flood discharge changes occurred in the mid-1960s, that of the maximum summer temperature changes in the mid-1990s, and the exact jump point in 1993. The flood discharge changes are on negative trend before the 1990s, they are on positive tendency after the 1990s; the maximum high summer temperature changes are on negative trend before the 1990s and on positive tendency after the 1990s. These results indicate that the trend of flood discharge matches that of the maximum high summer temperature in the Yangtze Delta. The occurrence probability of the maximum high summer temperature will be increasing under the climatic warming scenario and which will in turn increase the occurrence probability of the flood events. More active solar action epochs and the higher sea surface temperature index (SST index) of the south Pacific Ocean area lying between 4°N-4°S and 150°W-90°W correspond to increased annual precipitation, flood discharge and occurrence frequency of floods in the Yangtze Delta. This is partly because the intensified solar activities and the higher SST index give rise to accelerated hydrological circulation from ocean surface to the continent, resulting in increased precipitation on the continent.
机译：在长江三角洲，对气候变化和洪水事件的历史记录进行了广泛的收集。应用Man-Kendall（MK）方法来探讨洪水排放时间序列和夏季最高气温的变化趋势。研究结果表明，洪水强度在从中世纪暖期过渡到小冰期早期的过程中增加。小冰河时期的气候变化多以干旱气候事件为特征，随后又是潮湿和寒冷的气候条件，引起了频繁的洪水灾害。低洼的地形使研究区域容易遭受洪水灾害，风暴潮和台风的袭击。 MK分析显示，洪水流量变化的时间序列的跳跃点发生在1960年代中期，1990年中期是夏季最高温度变化的跳跃点，而1993年是确切的跳跃点。在1990年代以前是消极的趋势，在1990年代以后是正的趋势；夏季最高高温变化在1990年代之前呈负趋势，在1990年代之后呈正趋势。这些结果表明，长江三角洲的洪水流量趋势与夏季最高气温的趋势一致。在气候变暖的情况下，夏季最高高温的发生概率将会增加，这反过来又会增加洪水事件的发生概率。南太平洋区域处于4°N-4°S和150°W-90°W之间的更活跃的太阳活动时期和更高的海表温度指数（SST指数）对应于年降水量，洪水流量和发生频率的增加长江三角洲的洪水部分原因是太阳活动的增强和海表温度指数的提高导致从海洋表面到大陆的水文循环加速，导致大陆上的降水增加。

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