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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of great lakes research >Effects of walleye predation on variation in the stock-recruitment relationship of Lake Erie yellow perch
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Effects of walleye predation on variation in the stock-recruitment relationship of Lake Erie yellow perch

机译：捕食角膜白斑对伊利湖黄色鲈鱼种群-招聘关系变化的影响

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摘要

Stock-recruitment relationships (SRRs) may vary over time due to temporal variation in ecological conditions, reducing confidence in projections from stock-recruitment models. We examined whether the time-varying SRRs detected for yellow perch (Perca flavescens) in the western basin of Lake Erie between 1977 and 2013 could be attributed to variation in yearling walleye (Sander vitreus) predation, indexed by variation in density. Annual variation in yearling walleye density was strongly associated with yellow perch recruitment dynamics, and positively correlated with temporal variation in density-dependence of yellow perch SSRs. However, non stationary SRRs persisted after accounting for effects of yearling walleye density, and the extent of temporal variation in SRRs actually increased. In simulations, we showed that time-varying SRRs may result more from variation in low-frequency ecological factors on the order of decades, than from variation in high-frequency ecological factors on the order of years (e.g., yearling walleye density) and thus may not be distinguishable from noise. Hence, of these two types of factors, the systematic identification, characterization and incorporation of those of low-frequency factors into stock-recruitment models (e.g., exotic mussel invasions and eutrophication, in the case of Lake Erie) may offer greater promise to improve the reliability of long-term forecasts for sustainable harvests in this and other fisheries in dynamic ecosystems. (C) 2018 International Association for Great Lakes Research. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译：由于生态条件的时间变化，种群招聘关系（SRR）可能会随时间变化，从而降低了种群招聘模型对预测的信心。我们研究了1977年至2013年之间伊利湖西部盆地黄色鲈鱼（Perca flavescens）的时变SRRs是否可归因于一岁角膜白斑（Sander vitreus）捕食的变化，该变化以密度变化为指标。一岁角膜白斑密度的年度变化与黄鲈的募集动态密切相关，并且与黄鲈SSR的密度依赖性的时间变化呈正相关。然而，考虑到一岁角膜密度的影响后，非固定SRR仍然存在，并且SRR的时间变化程度实际上增加了。在模拟中，我们表明时变的SRR可能更多是由于几十年来的低频生态因子变化所致，而不是由于高频生态因子在多年数量级（例如，一岁角膜密度）上的变化所致，因此可能无法与噪音区分开。因此，在这两种类型的因素中，对低频因素的系统识别，表征和将其纳入种群补充模型（例如，伊利湖中的异国贻贝入侵和富营养化）可能会提供更大的改善希望对动态生态系统中该渔业和其他渔业可持续收成的长期预报的可靠性。 （C）2018国际大湖研究协会。由Elsevier B.V.发布。保留所有权利。

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