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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Hazardous Materials >Fuzzy fault tree assessment based on improved AHP for fire and explosion accidents for steel oil storage tanks
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Fuzzy fault tree assessment based on improved AHP for fire and explosion accidents for steel oil storage tanks

机译：基于改进层次分析法的钢质储油罐火灾爆炸事故模糊故障树评估

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摘要

Fire and explosion accidents of steel oil storage tanks (FEASOST) occur occasionally during the petroleum and chemical industry production and storage processes and often have devastating impact on lives, the environment and property. To contribute towards the development of a quantitative approach for assessing the occurrence probability of FEASOST, a fault tree of FEASOST is constructed that identifies various potential causes. Traditional fault tree analysis (FTA) can achieve quantitative evaluation if the failure data of all of the basic events (BEs) are available, which is almost impossible due to the lack of detailed data, as well as other uncertainties. This paper makes an attempt to perform FTA of FEASOST by a hybrid application between an expert elicitation based improved analysis hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy set theory, and the occurrence possibility of FEASOST is estimated for an oil depot in China. A comparison between statistical data and calculated data using fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) based on traditional and improved AHP is also made. Sensitivity and importance analysis has been performed to identify the most crucial BEs leading to FEASOST that will provide insights into how managers should focus effective mitigation.
机译：钢制储油罐（FEASOST）的火灾和爆炸事故在石油和化工行业的生产和储存过程中偶有发生，并经常对生命，环境和财产造成破坏性影响。为了促进评估FEASOST发生概率的定量方法的发展，构建了FEASOST故障树以识别各种潜在原因。如果所有基本事件（BE）的故障数据均可用，则传统故障树分析（FTA）可以实现定量评估，由于缺乏详细数据以及其他不确定性，这几乎是不可能的。本文尝试通过将专家启发式改进的层次分析法和模糊集理论相结合的方法来进行FEASOST的FTA，并估计了中国某油库FEASOST的发生可能性。还基于传统和改进的AHP，使用模糊故障树分析（FFTA）对统计数据和计算数据进行了比较。进行了敏感性和重要性分析，以找出导致FEASOST的最关键的BE，这将提供有关管理人员应如何关注有效缓解措施的见解。

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  • 来源
    《Journal of Hazardous Materials》 |2014年第15期|529-538|共10页
  • 作者

    Lei Shi; Jian Shuai; Kui Xu;

  • 作者单位

    College of Mechanical and Transportation Engineering, China University of Petroleum (Beijing Campus), Beijing 102249, PR China;

    College of Mechanical and Transportation Engineering, China University of Petroleum (Beijing Campus), Beijing 102249, PR China;

    College of Mechanical and Transportation Engineering, China University of Petroleum (Beijing Campus), Beijing 102249, PR China;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Fuzzy fault tree analysis; Modified analysis hierarchy process; Expert elicitation; Oil storage tanks; Fire and explosion;

    机译：模糊故障树分析;修改了分析层次结构过程;专家启发;储油罐;火灾和爆炸;

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