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The predictive validity of prospect theory versus expected utility in health utility measurement

机译：前景理论与预期效用在卫生效用测量中的预测效度

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Most health care evaluations today still assume expected utility even though the descriptive deficiencies of expected utility are well known. Prospect theory is the dominant descriptive alternative for expected utility. This paper tests whether prospect theory leads to better health evaluations than expected utility. The approach is purely descriptive: we explore how simple measurements together with prospect theory and expected utility predict choices and rankings between more complex stimuli. For decisions involving risk prospect theory is significantly more consistent with rankings and choices than expected utility. This conclusion no longer holds when we use prospect theory utilities and expected utilities to predict intertemporal decisions. The latter finding cautions against the common assumption in health economics that health state utilities are transferable across decision contexts. Our results suggest that the standard gamble and algorithms based on, should not be used to value health.
机译：如今，即使众所周知的预期效用的描述性缺陷，当今大多数医疗保健评估仍假设其具有预期效用。预期理论是预期效用的主要描述性选择。本文测试前景理论是否比预期效用能更好地评估健康状况。该方法纯粹是描述性的：我们探索简单的测量以及前景理论和预期效用如何预测更复杂刺激之间的选择和排名。对于涉及风险的决策，远景理论比预期效用更符合排名和选择。当我们使用前景理论效用和预期效用来预测跨期决策时，该结论不再成立。后者的发现对健康经济学中的一个普遍假设提出了警告，即健康状态效用可以在决策环境中转移。我们的结果表明，不应使用基于标准的赌博和算法来评估健康。

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