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Use of evidence in decision models: an appraisal of health technology assessments in the UK since 1997

机译：在决策模型中使用证据：自1997年以来对英国卫生技术评估的评估

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摘要

Objectives: To review the sources and quality of evidence used in the development of economic decision models in health technology assessments (HTAs). nnMethods: All economic decision models developed as part of the NHS Research and Development HTA Programme between 1997 and 2003 were reviewed. Quality of evidence was assessed using a hierarchy of data sources developed for economic analyses. nnResults: Decision models are parameterized using diverse sources of evidence (e.g. randomized controlled trials, observational studies, expert opinion). Evidence on the main clinical effect was mostly identified and quality assessed as part of the companion systematic review/meta-analysis of the HTA and therefore reported in a transparent and reproducible way. For the other model inputs (i.e. adverse events, baseline clinical data, resource use and utilities), the search strategies for identifying relevant evidence were rarely made explicit and in a number of reports the sources of specific evidence were unclear due to poor reporting. nnConclusions: A more formal and replicable approach to identification and assessment of quality of model inputs is required to reduce the 'black box' nature of decision models, and lead to less scepticism regarding model outputs.
机译：目标：审查卫生技术评估（HTA）中经济决策模型开发中使用的证据的来源和质量。 nn方法：回顾了1997年至2003年间作为NHS研究与开发HTA计划的一部分开发的所有经济决策模型。使用为经济分析而开发的数据源层次结构来评估证据的质量。结果：决策模型使用各种证据来源进行参数化（例如随机对照试验，观察性研究，专家意见）。大多数主要临床效果的证据已得到鉴定，并作为对HTA的系统评价/元分析的一部分对其质量进行了评估，因此以透明且可重复的方式进行报告。对于其他模型输入（即不良事件，基线临床数据，资源使用和效用），用于确定相关证据的检索策略很少明确，在许多报告中，由于报告不充分，具体证据的来源也不明确。 nn结论：需要一种更为正式和可复制的方法来识别和评估模型输入的质量，以减少决策模型的“黑匣子”性质，并减少对模型输出的怀疑。

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  • 来源
    《Journal of Health Services Research & Policy》 |2005年第4期|p.245-250|共6页
  • 作者

    Nicola Cooper Douglas Coyle Keith Abrams Miranda Mugford and Alexander Sutton;

  • 作者单位

    Centre for Biostatistics and Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, UK;

    Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Ottawa Health Research Institute, Department of Medicine and Epidemiology and Community Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ontario, Canada;

    Centre for Biostatistics and Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, UK;

    Health Economics and Ethics Group, School of Medicine, Health Policy & Practice, University of East Anglia, UK;

    Centre for Biostatistics and Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, UK;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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    decision models;

    机译：决策模型;

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