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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Health Services Research & Policy >Estimation of numbers of British medical graduates working in the National Health Service: comparison of capture–recapture analysis and exhaustive tracing
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Estimation of numbers of British medical graduates working in the National Health Service: comparison of capture–recapture analysis and exhaustive tracing

机译：估算在国家卫生局工作的英国医学毕业生的数量：捕获-再捕获分析与详尽跟踪的比较

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Objective: To compare the results of capture–recapture estimates and exhaustive follow-up in identifying thenpercentage of UK medical graduates who subsequently worked in the British National Health Service (NHS).nMethods: Postal questionnaire survey of all UK-trained doctors who graduated in 1974, with up to three remindersnsent to non-respondents. Further exhaustive tracing of non-respondents to obtain whole population estimates ofnnumbers in the NHS. Capture–recapture estimation of numbers working in the NHS, using survey data andnDepartment of Health employment records, for comparison with results from exhaustive tracing.nResults: A total of 85.3% (1460/1712) of respondents were working in the NHS, but further exhaustive tracing ofnnon-respondents revealed that only 75.9% (1758/2317) to 79.2% (1835/2317) of the whole cohort were in the NHS.nBy comparison, capture–recapture analysis estimated that 76.9% (1781/2317) of the cohort were in the NHS (95%nCI: 75.9% to 78.0%).nConclusions: Survey data alone overestimated the percentage of the whole cohort in the NHS. Capture–recapturenestimates were very similar to those obtained by exhaustive tracing but were obtained more quickly and for muchnless clerical effort.
机译：目的：比较捕获-再捕获估计和彻底随访的结果，以确定随后在英国国家卫生局（NHS）工作的英国医学毕业生的比例。n方法：对所有在英国接受过培训的英国医生的邮政问卷调查1974年，最多有3条提醒未答复者。进一步详尽地追踪未回答者，以获取NHS中n个数字的总体估计值。使用调查数据和卫生部门的就业记录，对NHS中的工作人数进行捕获-重新捕获估计，以与详尽的追踪结果进行比较。n结果：总共有85.3％（1460/1712）的受访者在NHS中工作，但进一步非应答者的详尽追踪显示，整个NHS仅占整个队列的75.9％（1758/2317）至79.2％（1835/2317）。通过比较，捕获-再捕获分析估计只有75.9％（1781/2317）被捕获。人群在NHS中（95％nCI：75.9％到78.0％）。n结论：仅调查数据高估了整个人群在NHS中的百分比。捕获-重新捕获的最终捕获与通过详尽跟踪获得的捕获捕获非常相似，但捕获起来更快，并且无需进行任何文书工作。

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