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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of housing and the built environment >Simulating urban expansion and scenario prediction using a cellular automata urban growth model, SLEUTH, through a case study of Karaj City, Iran
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Simulating urban expansion and scenario prediction using a cellular automata urban growth model, SLEUTH, through a case study of Karaj City, Iran

机译：通过伊朗卡拉伊市的案例研究，使用元胞自动机城市增长模型SLEUTH模拟城市扩张和情景预测

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Understanding, analysis, monitoring and modeling of urban growth evolution as a major driving force of land use/land cover transformation, especially in developing countries, is of great importance for land managers in the process of sustainable development. Using spatial predictive models and change detection techniques can provide an additional level of knowledge of the causes and impacts of urban growth mechanisms, which finally provide comprehensive insight into urban chronology. Karaj, the capital of Alborz province, has been experiencing a substantial increase in total area of urban environments mainly due to its socioeconomic attractions during the last three decades. The present work aims to reveal how the historical trend of the urban growth can affect its future spatial pattern. For conducting this study, the SLEUTH cellular automata urban growth model was executed via three calibration steps including coarse, fine and final. Relying on the calibrated model, dynamics of the Karaj City were predicted under its historical trend as well as two different scenarios including compact and extensive growth up to year 2040. According to the findings of the present study, while extensive growth option indicates the most consumption of the vacant lands, the compact scenario dictates infill form of the urban growth in addition to saving spaces. Finally, urban growth forecasting based on its historical trend illustrates that total area of the human-constructed elements will be in the middle of other two predictive scenarios.
机译：理解，分析，监测和建模城市发展演变，尤其是在发展中国家，是土地利用/土地覆被转变的主要驱动力，对于土地管理者在可持续发展过程中至关重要。使用空间预测模型和变化检测技术可以提供有关城市增长机制的成因和影响的更多知识，从而最终提供对城市年表的全面了解。阿尔博兹省首府卡拉伊（Karaj）的城市环境总面积一直在大幅增长，这主要归因于过去三十年来的社会经济吸引力。本工作旨在揭示城市增长的历史趋势如何影响其未来的空间格局。为了进行这项研究，通过三个校准步骤（包括粗略，精细和最终）执行了SLEUTH细胞自动机城市增长模型。依靠校准模型，预测了卡拉伊市的历史趋势以及两种不同的情景，包括到2040年的紧凑而广泛的增长。根据本研究的发现，广泛的增长选项表明消费最多。对于空置土地，紧凑的情景要求除了节省空间之外，还应采用城市增长的填充形式。最后，根据其历史趋势进行的城市增长预测表明，人为因素构成的总面积将处于其他两种预测情景的中间。

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