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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Hydraulic Engineering >Towards an Operational Flow Forecasting System for the Upper Niagara River
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Towards an Operational Flow Forecasting System for the Upper Niagara River

机译：朝着上尼亚加拉河的运营流量预测系统

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The authors developed a Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) model to serve as the key component of a new, first-of-its-kind, short-term operational flow forecasting system for the Niagara River. The Niagara River transports a continental-scale flow (with an annual mean of roughly6,300 m3/s) that supports the economy of both the United States and Canada through hydropower generation, tourism, and other activities. The river also serves as a link connecting the two most downstream lakes (Lakes Erie and Ontario) in the largest system of lakes on Earth. Despite its significance, the authors know of no federally operated, short-term forecasting system for the Niagara River. Hydropower facilities management and other water resources management activities on the river have historically relied on an array of experimental, in-house, or proprietary models to simulate and forecast Niagara River flows. The study presented here fills this gap in large-scale hydraulic modeling and engineering science by calibrating a HEC-RAS model for the Upper Niagara River and customizing it to meet the operational requirements of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) Northeast River Forecasting Center (NERFC). The skill of the new forecasting system, which was recently deployed in its operational environment at the NERFC, will depend in large part on the accuracy of meteorological boundary conditions. The authors envision a more comprehensive assessment of the system's forecasting skill and other potential future model improvements as an area for future research. (c) 2020 American Society of Civil Engineers.
机译：作者开发了一种水文工程中心 - 河流分析系统（HEC-RAS）模型，可作为尼亚加拉河的新一级短期运营流量预测系统的关键组成部分。尼亚加拉河运输大陆尺度流量（每年平均大约6,300 M3 / s），支持美国和加拿大经济通过水电一代，旅游等活动。这条河还可以作为连接地球上最大的湖泊系统的两个最下游湖泊（湖泊和安大略省）的链接。尽管有重要意义，作者知道没有针对尼亚加拉河的联邦运营的短期预测系统。水电设施管理和河流的其他水资源管理活动历史依赖于一系列实验，内部或专有模型来模拟和预测尼亚加拉河流。本研究提出了通过校准上尼亚加拉河的HEC-RAS模型来填补大规模液压建模和工程科学的这种差距，并定制它以满足国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）国家天气服务的运营要求（ NWS）东北河预报中心（NERFC）。最近在NERFC的运营环境中部署的新预测系统的技能将在很大程度上取决于气象边界条件的准确性。作者设想了对系统预测技能和其他潜在未来模型改进的更全面的评估，作为未来研究的领域。 （c）2020年美国土木工程师协会。

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