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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of hydro-environment research >Comparison of different statistical downscaling methods for climate change rainfall projections over the Lake Victoria basin considering CMIP3 and CMIP5
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Comparison of different statistical downscaling methods for climate change rainfall projections over the Lake Victoria basin considering CMIP3 and CMIP5

机译：考虑CMIP3和CMIP5的维多利亚湖流域气候变化降雨预测的不同统计降尺度方法的比较

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In this study, outputs of three statistical downscaling (SD) methods including the change factor (Delta), simplified (simQP) and advanced (wetQP) quantile-perturbation-based approaches were compared based on daily rainfall series at 9 meteorological stations in the Lake Victoria basin (LVB) in Eastern Africa. The comparison was made considering phase 5 and phase 3 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project, i.e. CMIP5 and CMIP3 respectively. For the CMIP5 (CMIP3) at each station, there were a total of 7 (14) GCMs, 18 (20) daily historical (control) simulations over the period 1961-2000, and 35 (49) daily future projection series of the periods 2050s and 2090s. The ensemble mean of the GCMs' Bias in reproducing rainfall extremes for return periods in the range of 1 to 40 years for the CMIP5 (CMIP3) varied from -19.05% to 3.11% (-65.85% to -4.86%). For the high greenhouse gas scenario rcp8.5 (A2) of the CMIP5 (CMIP3), the ensemble mean of the projected changes over the LVB in the 10-year rainfall intensity quantile obtained from the Delta, simQP, wetQP SD goes up to 5.8, 10 and 22.4% (11.7, 15.9 and 43.6%) in the 2050s and 8, 11.4, and 25.4% (14.2, 23.3 and 40.6%) in the 2090s. Rainfall totals of the main wet (dry) season are generally projected to increase (decrease) in both the 2050s and 2090s. Because the outputs from the three SD methods captured well the pattern of monthly rainfall totals, the difference between the projected changes of seasonal or annual rainfall totals from the Delta, simQP and wetQP was shown to be insignificant. However, the differences in the results from the Delta, simQP and wetQP methods with respect to the projections of rainfall quantiles indicate that the choice of the SD method can be made on a case by case basis in line with the objectives of the climate change impact study, e.g. the Delta does not capture well the changes in rainfall extremes, whereas the wetQP is suitable for both rainfall extremes and rainfall totals at both seasonal and annual time scales. The findings of this study also show the need to consider evaluations of the inter-GCM differences in the LVB as a data scarce region in assessing the discernible impact of climate change on rainfall extremes and/totals for decision making related to water resources management and engineering. (C) 2016 International Association for Hydro-environment Engineering and Research, Asia Pacific Division. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译：在这项研究中，基于9个气象站的每日降雨序列，比较了三种统计缩减（SD）方法的输出，包括变化因子（Delta），简化（simQP）和高级（wetQP）基于分位数摄动的方法东部非洲的维多利亚盆地（LVB）。比较是在耦合模型比较项目的第5阶段和第3阶段进行的，分别是CMIP5和CMIP3。对于每个站点的CMIP5（CMIP3），在1961-2000年期间总共有7（14）个GCM，18（20）个每日历史（控制）模拟，以及该时期的每日35个（49）未来预测系列2050年代和2090年代。 GCM偏差在CMIP5（CMIP3）的1至40年范围内重现极端降雨的总体平均值的偏差从-19.05％至3.11％（-65.85％至-4.86％）。对于CMIP5（CMIP3）的高温室气体情景rcp8.5（A2），从Delta，simQP，wetQP SD获得的10年降雨强度分位数中LVB的预计变化的总体平均值为5.8 ，2050年代分别为10和22.4％（11.7、15.9和43.6％）和2090年代分别为8、11.4和25.4％（14.2、23.3和40.6％）。通常预计2050年代和2090年代，主要湿季（干旱）的降雨总量将增加（减少）。由于三种SD方法的输出都很好地捕捉了月降雨量总量的模式，因此，从Delta，simQP和wetQP预测的季节或年度降雨总量的变化之间的差异被显示为微不足道。但是，Delta，simQP和wetQP方法在降雨分位数预测方面的结果差异表明，可以根据气候变化影响的目标，逐案选择SD方法学习，例如三角洲无法很好地捕捉极端降雨的变化，而wetQP既适合极端降雨，也适合于季节和年度时间尺度的降雨总量。这项研究的结果还表明，在评估气候变化对与水资源管理和工程相关的决策的降雨量和/或总降雨量的可识别影响时，需要考虑对LVB中GCM间差异的评估，将其视为数据稀缺的地区。 。 （C）2016年国际水环境工程与研究协会亚太分会。由Elsevier B.V.发布。保留所有权利。

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