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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Hydroinformatics >Multi-site evaluation to reduce parameter uncertainty in a conceptual hydrological modeling within the GLUE framework
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Multi-site evaluation to reduce parameter uncertainty in a conceptual hydrological modeling within the GLUE framework

机译：多站点评估以减少GLUE框架内概念性水文模型中的参数不确定性

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摘要

Reducing uncertainty of hydrological modeling and forecasting has both theoretical and practical importance in hydrological sciences and water resources management. This study focuses on reducing parameter uncertainty by multi-sites validating for the conceptual Xinanjiang model. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) method was used to conduct the uncertainty analysis with Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis (SCEM-UA) sampling. The discharge criterion of interior gauge station was added to select the behavioral parameters, and then two comparable schemes were established to illustrate how well the uncertainty can be reduced by considering the observations of the interior sites' flow information. The Dongwan watershed, a sub-basin of the Yellow River basin in China, was selected as the case study. The results showed that the number and standard deviation of behavioral parameter sets decreased, and the simulated runoff series by the Xinanjiang model with the behavioral parameter sets can fit better with the observed runoff series when setting the threshold value at the interior sites. In addition, considering the interior sites' flow information allows one to derive more reasonable prediction bounds and reduce the uncertainty in hydrological modeling and forecasting to some degree.
机译：减少水文建模和预报的不确定性在水文科学和水资源管理中具有理论和实践意义。本研究着重于通过概念性新安江模型的多点验证来减少参数不确定性。采用广义似然不确定性估计（GLUE）方法，对随机改组的复杂演化大都市（SCEM-UA）抽样进行不确定性分析。添加了内部仪表站的排放标准以选择行为参数，然后建立了两个可比较的方案，以说明通过考虑内部站点的流量信息的观察可以如何减少不确定性。案例研究选择了中国黄河流域的东湾流域。结果表明，行为参数集的数量和标准差减少，当在内部场所设置阈值时，带有行为参数集的新安江模型模拟的径流序列可以更好地与观测到的径流序列拟合。此外，考虑到内部站点的流量信息，可以使人们获得更合理的预测范围，并在一定程度上减少水文建模和预测的不确定性。

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  • 来源
    《Journal of Hydroinformatics》 |2014年第1期|60-73|共14页
  • 作者

    Kairong Lin; Pan Liu; Yanhu He; Shenglian Guo;

  • 作者单位

    Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China,Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong High Education Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China;

    State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China;

    Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China,Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong High Education Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China;

    State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    GLUE; multi-site evaluation; parameter uncertainty; SCEM-UA; Xinanjiang model;

    机译：胶;多地点评估;参数不确定性SCEM-UA;新安江模式;

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