An adaptive predictive approach for river level forecasting

Jose v. Aguilar; Pedro Langarita; Lorenzo Linares; Manuel Gomez; Jose Rodellar

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An adaptive predictive approach for river level forecasting

机译：河流水位预测的自适应预测方法

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摘要

Efficient flood management requires accurate real-time forecasts to allow early warnings, real-time control of hydraulics structures, or other actions. Commercially available computing tools typically use hydraulic models derived from the numerical approximation of Saint-Venant equations. These tools need powerful computers, accurate knowledge of the riverbed topography, and skilled operators with a not insignificant hydraulic background. This paper presents an alternative approach in which the river basin is modeled as a network of cascade interconnected input-output systems. Each system is modeled by an adaptive predictive expert model, which provides real-time fast and accurate forecasts over a moving prediction horizon. The approach is evaluated using real data from the Ebro river basin in Spain. The main concluded advantages of the new approach are: (1) the formulation is simple with low computational burden; (2) it does not require topographic information on the river waterbeds; (3) the forecast may be performed autonomously.

机译：高效的洪水管理需要准确的实时预测，以便发出预警，对水力结构进行实时控制或采取其他措施。市售的计算工具通常使用从Saint-Venant方程的数值近似推导的液压模型。这些工具需要功能强大的计算机，对河床地形的准确了解以及液压背景并非微不足道的熟练操作员。本文提出了一种替代方法，其中将流域建模为级联互连的输入-输出系统的网络。每个系统均由自适应预测专家模型建模，该模型在移动的预测范围内提供实时，快速，准确的预测。该方法是使用来自西班牙埃布罗河流域的真实数据进行评估的。新方法的主要结论是：（1）公式简单，计算负担低；（2）不需要河流水床的地形信息；（3）预测可以自主执行。

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来源
《Journal of Hydroinformatics》 |2013年第2期|232-245|共14页
作者
Jose v. Aguilar; Pedro Langarita; Lorenzo Linares; Manuel Gomez; Jose Rodellar;
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作者单位

Automation and Control Group,Confederacion Hidrografica del Ebro,50071 Zaragoza,Spain;

Automation and Control Group,Confederacion Hidrografica del Ebro,50071 Zaragoza,Spain;

Automation and Control Group, SICE,50009 Zaragoza,Spain;

FLUMEN Group, Department of Hydraulics,Marine and Environmental Engineering,Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya-BARCELONATECH, 08034 Barcelona,Spain;

Control, Dynamics and Applications Group,Department of Applied Mathematics III,universitat Politecnica de catalunya -BARCELONATECH. 08034 Barcelona,Spain;

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收录信息美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);
原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类
关键词
adaptive predictive models; data-driven modeling; floods; river level forecasting;

机译：自适应预测模型;数据驱动的建模;洪水河流水位预报;

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An adaptive predictive approach for river level forecasting

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