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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Hydroinformatics >Forecasting tropical cyclone intensity change in the western North Pacific
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Forecasting tropical cyclone intensity change in the western North Pacific

机译：预测北太平洋西部的热带气旋强度变化

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摘要

For typhoon warning centers, effective forecasting of tropical cyclone intensity is always required. The major difficulties and challenges in forecasting tropical cyclone intensity are the complex physical mechanism and the structure of tropical cyclones. The interaction between the tropical cyclone and its environment is also a complex process. In this paper, a model based on support vector machines is developed to yield the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72 h forecasts of tropical cyclone intensity. Furthermore, the forecasts resulting from the proposed model are compared with those from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Cross-validation tests are also applied to evaluate the accuracy and the robustness of the proposed model. The results confirm that the proposed model can provide accurate forecasts of tropical cyclone intensity, especially for a long lead-time. When the sample events are classified into five categories according to the Saffir-Simpson scale, the forecasts resulting from the proposed model have the best performance for events in categories 4 and 5. In addition, when a typhoon turns northward, although the water temperature drops rapidly, the proposed model still performs well. In conclusion, the proposed model is useful to improve the forecasts of tropical cyclones intensity.
机译：对于台风预警中心，始终需要有效预报热带气旋强度。预测热带气旋强度的主要困难和挑战是复杂的物理机制和热带气旋的结构。热带气旋与其环境之间的相互作用也是一个复杂的过程。在本文中，建立了一个基于支持向量机的模型，可以对热带气旋强度进行12、24、36、48、72小时的预报。此外，将拟议模型产生的预报与联合台风预警中心的预报进行了比较。交叉验证测试也适用于评估所提出模型的准确性和鲁棒性。结果证实，所提出的模型可以提供热带气旋强度的准确预测，特别是对于较长的交货期。当根据Saffir-Simpson尺度将事件样本分为五类时，根据模型提出的预测对于类别4和5中的事件具有最佳性能。此外，当台风向北旋转时，尽管水温下降很快，所提出的模型仍然运行良好。总之，所提出的模型对于改善热带气旋强度的预报是有用的。

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