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Uncertainty assessment of monthly water balance models based on Incremental Modified Fuzzy Extension Principle method

机译：基于增量修正模糊扩展原理方法的月度水平衡模型不确定度评估

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摘要

In this paper, a new method, namely Incremental Modified Fuzzy Extension Principle (IMFEP), is proposed for uncertainty assessment of conceptual water balance models. IMFEP is based on a new modification of fuzzy extension principle using fuzzy approximate. The most important feature of the IMFEP method lies in its realistic superposition of convex fuzzy membership functions of model inputs at different fuzzy α-cuts. To evaluate the IMFEP method, four other fuzzy-based approaches have been used to assess the uncertainties in simulating monthly water balance in basin scale and their results are compared with IMFEP. These approaches, one based on simple fuzzy mathematics, Vertex method, UNcertainty Estimation based on local Errors and Clustering (UNEEC) and Modified Fuzzy Extension Principle (MFEP) have been previously used for uncertainty estimation of water models. The nonlinear monthly water balance models calibrated for the two basins in Iran and France and their outputs with the five aforementioned methods have been compared. For both basins, IMFEP and MFEP methods have shown the best performance followed by UNEEC and Vertex methods (however, the differences in the underlying assumptions of the UNEEC method have to be taken into account). It can be concluded that the IMFEP method shows strong performance of uncertainty propagation in all evaluated fuzzy α-cuts.
机译：本文提出了一种新的方法，即增量修正模糊扩展原理（IMFEP），用于概念水平衡模型的不确定性评估。 IMFEP基于使用模糊近似的模糊扩展原理的新修改。 IMFEP方法的最重要特征在于其在不同模糊α割下模型输入的凸模糊隶属函数的现实叠加。为了评估IMFEP方法，已经使用了另外四种基于模糊的方法来评估模拟流域尺度月度水平衡的不确定性，并将其结果与IMFEP进行比较。这些方法基于简单的模糊数学，顶点方法，基于局部误差和聚类的不确定性估计（UNEEC）和改进的模糊扩展原理（MFEP），以前已用于水模型的不确定性估计。比较了针对伊朗和法国两个流域校准的非线性月度水平衡模型及其使用上述五种方法的输出。对于这两个盆地，IMFEP和MFEP方法表现出最佳的性能，其次是UNEEC和Vertex方法（但是，必须考虑UNEEC方法的基本假设的差异）。可以得出结论，IMFEP方法在所有评估的模糊α割中均表现出强大的不确定性传播性能。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Journal of Hydroinformatics》 |2013年第4期|1340-1360|共21页
  • 作者

    M. Nasseri; B. Zahraie; A. Ansari; D. P. Solomatine;

  • 作者单位

    School of Civil Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran;

    Center of Excellence for Engineering and Management of Civil Infrastructures, School of Civil Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran;

    International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Tehran, Iran;

    UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft, The Netherlands Water Resources Section, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    fuzzy reasoning; mathematical fuzzy operator; modeling uncertainty estimation; monthly water balance; UNEEC;

    机译：模糊推理;数学模糊算子;建模不确定性估计;每月水量平衡;联合国欧洲经济委员会;

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