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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Hydroinformatics >Improving prediction accuracy of river discharge time series using a Wavelet-NAR artificial neural network
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Improving prediction accuracy of river discharge time series using a Wavelet-NAR artificial neural network

机译：小波-NAR人工神经网络提高河流流量时间序列的预测精度

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摘要

This study developed a wavelet transformation and nonlinear autoregressive (NAR) artificial neural network (ANN) hybrid modeling approach to improve the prediction accuracy of river discharge time series. Daubechies 5 discrete wavelet was employed to decompose the time series data into subseries with low and high frequency, and these subseries were then used instead of the original data series as the input vectors for the designed NAR network (NARN) with the Bayesian regularization (BR) optimization algorithm. The proposed hybrid approach was applied to make multi-step-ahead predictions of monthly river discharge series in the Weihe River in China. The prediction results of this hybrid model were compared with those of signal NARNs and the traditional Wavelet-Artificial Neural Network hybrid approach (WNN). The comparison results revealed that the proposed hybrid model could significantly increase the prediction accuracy and prediction period of the river discharge time series in the current case study.
机译：本研究开发了一种小波变换和非线性自回归（NAR）人工神经网络（ANN）混合建模方法，以提高河流排放时间序列的预测精度。使用Daubechies 5离散小波将时间序列数据分解为低频和高频子序列，然后使用这些子序列代替原始数据序列，将其作为具有贝叶斯正则化（BR）的设计NAR网络（NARN）的输入向量）优化算法。所提出的混合方法被用于对中国渭河的月流量序列进行多步预测。将该混合模型的预测结果与信号NARNs和传统的小波-人工神经网络混合方法（WNN）的预测结果进行了比较。比较结果表明，在当前案例研究中，提出的混合模型可以显着提高河流流量时间序列的预测精度和预测周期。

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  • 来源
    《Journal of Hydroinformatics》 |2012年第4期|p.974-991|共18页
  • 作者

    Shouke Wei; Depeng Zuo; Jinxi Song;

  • 作者单位

    Department System Analysis, Integrated Assessment and Modelling, The Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology (EAWAG), 8600 Diibendorf, Switzerland and Apmosian SciTech international inc., BC V5P 3R1, Vancouver, Canada;

    College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, 100875 Beijing, China;

    College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northwest University, 710069 Xi'an, China;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    bayesian regularization; NAR network; river discharge; wavelet transformation; weihe river;

    机译：贝叶斯正则化NAR网络;河水排放小波变换渭河;

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