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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Hydroinformatics >Parameter calibration and uncertainty estimation of a simple rainfall-runoff model in two case studies
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Parameter calibration and uncertainty estimation of a simple rainfall-runoff model in two case studies

机译：一个简单的降雨-径流模型的参数校准和不确定性估计，两个案例研究

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摘要

The simple rainfall-runoff conceptual KIDS (Kielstau Discharge Simulation) model using PCRaster is applied to simulate continuously daily discharge of the Kielstau and XitaoXi basins. This work focuses on parameter calibration procedure and, in particular, assessment of model prediction uncertainty, We employ a simplistic analysis routine SUFI-2, coupled with the implementation of a Monte Carlo based sampling strategy for the joint investigation of parameter calibration and uncertainty estimation. The scatter plots of model performance and parameter exhibit high equifinality of parameter sets in fitting observations, while their histogram distribution patterns imply that most parameters can be well defined. This study investigates parameter sensitivities and finds interesting local results: soil and groundwater parameters are more sensitive in Kielstau models than in XitaoXi models, and only the soil parameters 'S_(fk)' and 'K_c' are found strongly correlated. Finally, the uncertainty bounds are always thin and the global shape of the hydrograph is well approximated for both basins. As the validated uncertainty bounds also represent the desired coverage (P factor >50%) of the observations, and the calculated R factor values are in the targeted range (R factor < 1), it demonstrates the efficiency and suitability of this revised SUFI method for the two case studies.
机译：使用PCRaster的简单降雨径流概念性KIDS（Kielstau流量模拟）模型用于连续模拟Kielstau和XitaoXi流域的日流量。这项工作侧重于参数校准程序，尤其是模型预测不确定性的评估。我们采用了简化的分析例程SUFI-2，并结合了基于蒙特卡洛的采样策略的实施，以进行参数校准和不确定性估计的联合研究。模型性能和参数的散点图在拟合观测中显示出参数集的高度均等性，而它们的直方图分布模式表明可以很好地定义大多数参数。这项研究调查了参数敏感性，并找到了有趣的局部结果：在Kielstau模型中，土壤和地下水参数比在XitaoXi模型中更为敏感，只有土壤参数'S_（fk）'和'K_c'紧密相关。最后，不确定性界限总是很薄，并且两个盆地的水文曲线的整体形状都非常近似。由于经过验证的不确定性范围也代表了所需的观测范围（P因子> 50％），并且计算出的R因子值在目标范围内（R因子<1），因此证明了此修订版SUFI方法的效率和适用性对于这两个案例研究。

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  • 来源
    《Journal of Hydroinformatics》 |2012年第4期|p.1061-1074|共14页
  • 作者

    X. Zhang; G. Hoermann; N. Fohrer; J. Gao;

  • 作者单位

    Ecology Centre, Department of Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Institute for the Conservation of Natural Resources, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Olshausenstr. 40, D-24098 Kiel, Germany;

    Ecology Centre, Department of Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Institute for the Conservation of Natural Resources, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Olshausenstr. 40, D-24098 Kiel, Germany;

    Ecology Centre, Department of Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Institute for the Conservation of Natural Resources, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Olshausenstr. 40, D-24098 Kiel, Germany;

    Nanjing Institute of Geography & Limnology, CAS, Nanjing 210008, China;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    hydrologic modeling; KIDS model; kielstau in germany; parameter uncertainty estimation; random sampling; XitaoXi in China;

    机译：水文模拟;KIDS模型;德国基尔斯托参数不确定性估计;随机抽样;中国的西淘西;

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