...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Hydroinformatics >Use of generalized extreme value covariates to improve estimation of trends and return frequencies for lake levels
【24h】

Use of generalized extreme value covariates to improve estimation of trends and return frequencies for lake levels

机译：使用广义极值协变量来改善对湖泊水位趋势和返回频率的估计

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

One of the most important tools in water management is the accurate forecast of long-term and short-term extreme values for flood and drought conditions. Traditional methods of trend detection are not suited for hydrologic systems while traditional methods of predicting extreme frequencies may be highly inaccurate in lakes. Traditional frequency estimates assume independence from trend or initial stage. However, due to autocorrelation of lake levels, initial stage can greatly influence the severity of an event. This research utilizes the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution with time and starting stage covariates to more accurately identify trend direction and magnitude and provide improved predictions of flood and drought stages. Traditional methods of predicting flood or drought stages significantly overpredict or underpredict stages depending on the initial stage. Prediction differences can exceed one meter, a substantial amount in regions with flat topography; these differences could result in significant alterations in evacuation plans or other management decisions such as how much lake water to release in preparation for an approaching hurricane, appropriate lake levels to maintain, minimum structure floor elevations and more accurate forecasting of future water supply or impacts to tourism. The methods utilized in this research can be applied globally.
机译：水资源管理中最重要的工具之一是准确预测洪水和干旱状况的长期和短期极端值。传统的趋势检测方法不适用于水文系统，而传统的预测极端频率的方法在湖泊中可能非常不准确。传统的频率估计假设独立于趋势或初始阶段。但是，由于湖泊水平的自相关，初始阶段会极大地影响事件的严重性。这项研究利用时间和起始阶段协变量的广义极值（GEV）分布来更准确地识别趋势方向和幅度，并提供洪水和干旱阶段的改进预测。预测洪水或干旱阶段的传统方法根据初始阶段会大大高估或低估阶段。预测差异可能会超过一米，这在地形平坦的地区相当可观；这些差异可能会导致疏散计划或其他管理决策发生重大变化，例如为迎接即将来临的飓风释放多少湖水，保持适当的湖面水位，最小的结构底面标高以及对未来供水或对水的影响的更准确的预测旅游。本研究中使用的方法可以在全球范围内应用。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号