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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Hydroinformatics >Probabilistic green infrastructure cost calculations using a phased life cycle algorithm integrated with uncertainties
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Probabilistic green infrastructure cost calculations using a phased life cycle algorithm integrated with uncertainties

机译：使用具有不确定性的分阶段生命周期算法来计算概率性绿色基础设施成本

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摘要

Green infrastructure (GI) is often considered a cost-effective approach to urban stormwater management. Though various models have been created to simulate the life cycle cost (LCC) and present value (PV) of GI investments, decision-support tools are still few. This paper introduces a probabilistic GI cost estimation algorithm built into the Low Impact Development Rapid Assessment (LIDRA) model. This algorithm tracks annual and cumulative costs associated with the construction, operation and maintenance (O&M), and ultimate replacement of GI systems. In addition, the algorithm accounts for uncertainties in cost drivers, such as a GI's useful life (until replacement), capital and annual O&M costs, inflation, and interest rates. Net present value (NPV) is used to normalize future money flows and cumulative costs of different GI investment scenarios into a comparable current year cost equivalent. Demonstrated at the block scale, the results of the LIDRA algorithm are compared to an MS Excel-based computation of average costs. Variations of uncertainties are then integrated and further explored using an alternative implementation rate. This algorithm is a way to evaluate GI costs considering physical, socioeconomic and life cycle dimensions.
机译：绿色基础设施（GI）通常被认为是一种有效的城市雨水管理方法。尽管已经创建了各种模型来模拟GI投资的生命周期成本（LCC）和现值（PV），但是决策支持工具仍然很少。本文介绍了内置在低影响开发快速评估（LIDRA）模型中的概率GI成本估算算法。该算法可跟踪与GI系统的构建，运营和维护（O＆M）以及最终更换相关的年度和累积成本。此外，该算法还考虑了成本动因的不确定性，例如地理标志的使用寿命（直到更换），资本和年度O＆M成本，通货膨胀和利率。净现值（NPV）用于将不同地理标志投资方案的未来资金流量和累积成本标准化为可比较的当年成本等值。以区块规模展示，将LIDRA算法的结果与基于MS Excel的平均成本计算进行了比较。然后整合不确定性的变化，并使用替代实施率进一步探讨。该算法是一种考虑物理，社会经济和生命周期维度来评估地理标识成本的方法。

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