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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of hydrologic engineering >Comparison of Likelihood-Free Inference Approach and a Formal Bayesian Method in Parameter Uncertainty Assessment: Case Study with a Single-Event Rainfall-Runoff Model
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Comparison of Likelihood-Free Inference Approach and a Formal Bayesian Method in Parameter Uncertainty Assessment: Case Study with a Single-Event Rainfall-Runoff Model

机译：在参数不确定性评估中的似然推理方法和正式贝叶斯方法的比较：单事件降雨模型的案例研究

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摘要

In the present study, DREAM(ZS) and DREAM(ABC) (which stands for differential evolution adaptive metropolis) algorithms were applied to determine the parameters' uncertainty in a single-event rainfall-runoff model, and rainfall multipliers were also used to correct rainfall forcing errors. Moreover, DREAM(zS)> based on the original DREAM algorithm, and the DREAM(AB) algorithm, as a likelihood-free inference approach, were both used to explore the posterior parameters in high-dimensional inference problems. Before comparing DREAM(ZS) with DREAM(ABC), some underlying assumptions of residual distribution were analyzed and then fulfilled to obtain a suitable likelihood function and also to provide a more reliable estimation of the parameters. Despite the use of an acceptable likelihood function in the DREAM(ZS) algorithm, the results confirm the advantage of the DREAM(ABC) for assessing the uncertainty in a single-event model and high-dimensional parameter spaces. Moreover, an acceptable distance function used in DREAM(ABC) is suggested to assess the uncertainty in a single-event rainfall-runoff model (HEC-HMS). Occasional flash floods occur in this study region and in large parts of Iran. The results of this study can, therefore, be useful for achieving more accurate predictions and planning for flood control management.
机译：在本研究中，应用梦想（ZS）和梦想（ABC）（代表差分演进自适应大都市）算法以确定单一事件降雨模型中的参数的不确定性，降雨量乘法器也用于纠正降雨强迫错误。此外，基于原始梦想算法的梦想（ZS）>作为一种无似然推断方法的梦想（AB）算法，既用于探索高维推理问题的后部参数。在将梦想（ZS）与梦想（ABC）进行比较之前，分析了一些残留分布的潜在假设，然后实现以获得合适的似然函数，并提供更可靠的参数估计。尽管在梦想（ZS）算法中使用了可接受的似然函数，结果证实了梦想（ABC）的优势，用于评估单事件模型和高维参数空间中的不确定性。此外，建议在梦想（ABC）中使用的可接受的距离函数来评估单事件降雨 - 径流模型（HEC-HMS）中的不确定性。在本研究区域和伊朗的大部分地区发生偶尔的闪蒸洪水。因此，本研究的结果可用于实现洪水控制管理的更准确的预测和规划。

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