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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of industrial and management optimization >OPTIMAL EXPANSION TIMING DECISIONS IN MULTI-STAGE PPP PROJECTS INVOLVING DEDICATED ASSET AND GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIES
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OPTIMAL EXPANSION TIMING DECISIONS IN MULTI-STAGE PPP PROJECTS INVOLVING DEDICATED ASSET AND GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIES

机译：涉及专用资产和政府补贴的多级PPP项目中的最佳扩展时间决策

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摘要

The topic of investment timing in multi-stage public-private partnership (PPP) projects has not been received much attention so far. This study investigates optimal expansion timing decisions in multi-stage PPP projects under an uncertain demand and where the first-stage greenfield project involving a dedicated asset is immediately implemented as the PPP contract is closed, whereas the timing of the later expansion is flexibly decided according to the demand. In this setting, the optimal multiple stopping timing theory is adopted to model the expansion framework. Furthermore, we integrate a government subsidy, including an investment subsidy and revenue subsidy, into the expansion timing decisions. Through a hypothetical three-stage investment plan for a sanitary sewerage project, the optimal expansion strategies and the value of the multi-stage project before and after the subsidy are provided using a least squares Monte Carlo simulation. Also, the influences of a dedicated asset on the expansion strategies and project value are illustrated. In addition, we compare the incremental value before and after the subsidy and earlier expansion derived from two types of subsidies. The comparisons show that there is more incremental value for the revenue subsidy, and that the investment subsidy brings an earlier expansion.
机译：到目前为止，多阶段公私合作伙伴关系（PPP）项目的投资时序（PPP）项目的主题尚未得到很多关注。本研究在不确定的需求下调查了多阶段PPP项目中的最佳扩展时机决策，并且在PPP合同关闭时立即实施涉及专用资产的第一阶段绿地项目，而后期膨胀的时序则灵活地决定需求。在此设置中，采用最佳多次停止定时理论来建模扩展框架。此外，我们将政府补贴（包括投资补贴和收入补贴）纳入扩张时序决策。通过假设的三阶段投资计划，为卫生污水处理项目，使用最小二乘蒙特卡罗模拟提供了补贴前后多级项目的最佳扩展策略和价值。此外，说明了专用资产对扩展策略和项目价值的影响。此外，我们在补贴之前和之后的增量值和早期扩展从两种补贴派生之前进行了比较。比较表明，收入补贴有更多的增量价值，投资补贴带来了早期的扩张。

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