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Evaluating research and researchers by the journal impact factor: Is it better than coin flipping?

机译：通过期刊影响因素评估研究人员和研究人员：这比掷硬币好吗？

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摘要

The journal impact factor (JIF) is the average of the number of citations of the papers published in a journal, calculated according to a specific formula; it is extensively used for the evaluation of research and researchers. The method assumes that all papers in a journal have the same scientific merit, which is measured by the JIF of the publishing journal. This implies that the number of citations measures scientific merits but the JIF does not evaluate each individual paper by its own number of citations. Therefore, in the comparative evaluation of two papers, the use of the JIF implies a risk of failure, which occurs when a paper in the journal with the lower JIF is compared to another with fewer citations in the journal with the higher JIF. To quantify this risk of failure, this study calculates the failure probabilities, taking advantage of the lognormal distribution of citations. In two journals whose JIFs are ten-fold different, the failure probability is low. However, in most cases when two papers are compared, the JIFs of the journals are not so different. Then, the failure probability can be close to 0.5, which is equivalent to evaluating by coin flipping. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：期刊影响因子（JIF）是期刊中被引用论文的平均数量，是根据特定公式计算得出的；它被广泛用于研究和研究人员的评估。该方法假定期刊中的所有论文都具有相同的科学价值，这由出版期刊的JIF来衡量。这意味着引文数量衡量的是科学优点，但JIF并未根据每篇论文的自身引文数量对其进行评估。因此，在两篇论文的比较评估中，使用JIF意味着存在失败的风险，这种风险发生在JIF较低的期刊中的一篇论文与JIF较高的期刊中被引用较少的另一篇论文进行比较时。为了量化这种失败的风险，本研究利用引用的对数正态分布来计算失败的概率。在两种JIF值相差十倍的期刊中，失败的可能性很低。但是，在大多数情况下，将两篇论文进行比较时，期刊的JIF差别不大。然后，故障概率可以接近0.5，这等效于通过掷硬币进行评估。 （C）2019 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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  • 来源
    《Journal of informetrics》 |2019年第1期|314-324|共11页
  • 作者

    Brito Ricardo; Rodriguez-Navarro Alonso;

  • 作者单位

    Univ Complutense Madrid, Dept Estruct Mat Fis Term & Elect, Plaza Ciencias 3, E-28040 Madrid, Spain|Univ Complutense Madrid, GISC, Plaza Ciencias 3, E-28040 Madrid, Spain;

    Univ Complutense Madrid, Dept Estruct Mat Fis Term & Elect, Plaza Ciencias 3, E-28040 Madrid, Spain|Univ Complutense Madrid, GISC, Plaza Ciencias 3, E-28040 Madrid, Spain|Univ Politecn Madrid, Dept Biotecnol Biol Vegetal, Ave Puerta de Hierro 2, E-28040 Madrid, Spain;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Research evaluation; Impact factor; Failure probability;

    机译：研究评价;影响因素;失效概率;

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