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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Infrastructure Systems >Foreign Direct Investment in Infrastructure Projects: Taxonomy of Political Risk Profiles in Developing Countries
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Foreign Direct Investment in Infrastructure Projects: Taxonomy of Political Risk Profiles in Developing Countries

机译：外国对基础设施项目的直接投资：发展中国家政治风险概况的分类

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摘要

Political risk is a recognized deterrent to foreign direct investment in infrastructure (FDII) in developing countries. The sensitivity of FDII to political risk is amplified above that of common foreign direct investment (FDI) as a consequence of the distinguishing characteristics of FDII: larger capital commitments, longer payback periods, and greater dependency on government stability. Moreover, developing countries experience political risk at higher levels than developed countries. Nevertheless, the literature remains conflicted as to the exact impact of political risk on FDI and infrastructure investment. Some studies reported the impact of political risk as considerable, whereas others reported it as marginal when corrected for other factors. This study seeks to resolve the uncertainty surrounding the effect of political risk on FDII. It draws on a database of 90 developing countries from 2006 to 2015. The hierarchical cluster method and general least-squares regression are applied to analyze this database against further FDII moderators identified in the literature: gross domestic product (GDP), GDP per capita, GDP growth rates, macroeconomic conditions, and infrastructure stock, as well as 12 political risk indicators. Findings reveal that in about half of the countries, FDII is indeed sensitive to political risk, whereas in the other half, it is less sensitive. Moderating these outcomes are economic factors. In countries with higher GDP but lower GDP growth and higher stocks of infrastructure, political risk plays a stronger role in deterring FDII. However, when countries have lower GDP but higher GDP growth and lower stocks of infrastructure, political risk plays a lesser deterrent role in FDII. The identification of this duality of developing country infrastructure investment profiles will be of practical interest to both capital investors and those seeking investment.
机译：政治风险是对发展中国家外国直接投资基础设施（FDII）的公认阻吓作用。由于FDII的显着特征，FDII对政治风险的敏感性比普通外国直接投资（FDI）高，这是因为FDII具有更大的资本承担，更长的投​​资回收期以及对政府稳定的依赖性。此外，发展中国家面临的政治风险要高于发达国家。然而，关于政治风险对外国直接投资和基础设施投资的确切影响，文献仍然存在争议。一些研究报告称政治风险的影响相当可观，而另一些报告则将其校正为其他因素后认为是微不足道的。本研究旨在解决围绕政治风险对FDII影响的不确定性。它使用了2006年至2015年的90个发展中国家的数据库。采用层次聚类方法和一般最小二乘回归分析该数据库，以与文献中确定的其他FDII主持人进行比较：国内生产总值（GDP），人均GDP， GDP增长率，宏观经济状况和基础设施存量，以及12个政治风险指标。调查结果表明，在大约一半的国家中，FDII确实对政治风险敏感，而在另一半中，FDII则不那么敏感。调节这些结果是经济因素。在GDP较高但GDP增长较低且基础设施储备较高的国家中，政治风险在阻止FDII方面发挥着更大的作用。但是，当国家的GDP较低，GDP增长较高且基础设施存量较低时，政治风险在FDII中的威慑作用较小。发展中国家基础设施投资概况的这种双重性的确定将对资本投资者和寻求投资的人们都具有实际意义。

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