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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Infrastructure Systems >Hurricane Risk Assessment of Power Distribution Poles Considering Impacts of a Changing Climate
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Hurricane Risk Assessment of Power Distribution Poles Considering Impacts of a Changing Climate

机译：考虑气候变化影响的配电杆飓风风险评估

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Storm-related power outages cause approximately $270 million per year in repair costs in the United States. As a result of increasing sea surface temperatures caused by the changing climate, hurricane patterns (i.e., intensity/frequency) may change; however, there is much uncertainty as to how climate change may affect hurricane patterns. Implications of the changing hazard patterns on hurricane risk warrants an investigation to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on power distribution pole failure. This paper proposes a probabilistic framework to evaluate the vulnerability of power distribution poles to hurricanes under the potential impact of a changing climate. Two methods for the design of distribution poles in the United States, the National Electric Safety Code method and the ASCE method, are considered to investigate the difference of the vulnerability of a distribution pole subjected to hurricane hazard. The framework includes a reliability analysis of the designed power distribution poles using fragility analysis, the effects of degradation of timber poles, probabilistic wind models, and an assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on the annual failure probability of power distribution poles. This paper finds that climate change may have a significant effect on the structural failure probabilities of distribution poles. The age of the poles has a significant impact on the reliability of power distribution poles, which warrants the exploration of cost-effective methods to determine when a distribution pole should be replaced to ensure adequate strength to withstand wind loads.
机译：在美国，与风暴相关的停电每年造成大约2.7亿美元的维修成本。由于气候变化导致海面温度升高，飓风模式（即强度/频率）可能会发生变化；但是，关于气候变化如何影响飓风模式存在很多不确定性。危害模式变化对飓风风险的影响值得进行一项调查，以评估气候变化对配电杆故障的潜在影响。本文提出了一个概率框架，以评估在气候变化的潜在影响下配电杆对飓风的脆弱性。为了研究遭受飓风危害的配电杆的易损性差异，考虑了在美国设计配电杆的两种方法，即国家电气安全法和ASCE方法。该框架包括使用脆弱性分析对设计的配电杆进行可靠性分析，木杆退化，概率风模型以及评估气候变化对配电杆年失效概率的潜在影响。本文发现气候变化可能对配电杆的结构破坏概率有重大影响。电线杆的寿命对配电杆的可靠性有重要影响，这保证了探索具有成本效益的方法来确定何时应更换配电杆以确保足够的强度以承受风荷载。

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