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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Infrastructure Systems >Empirical Data and Regression Analysis for Estimation of Infrastructure Resilience with Application to Electric Power Outages
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Empirical Data and Regression Analysis for Estimation of Infrastructure Resilience with Application to Electric Power Outages

机译：估计基础设施弹性的经验数据和回归分析在电力中断中的应用

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摘要

Recent natural disasters have highlighted the need for increased planning for disruptive events. Forecasting damage and time that a system will be inoperable is important for disruption planning. The resilience of critical infrastructure systems, or their ability to recover quickly from a disruption, can mitigate adverse consequences of the disruption. This paper quantifies the resilience of a critical infrastructure sector through the dynamic inoperability input-output model (DIIM). The DIIM, which describes how inoperability propagates through a set of interdependent industry and infrastructure sectors following a disruptive event, includes a resilience parameter that has not yet been adequately assessed. This paper provides a data-driven approach to derive the resilience parameter through regression models. Data may contain different disruption scenarios, and regression models can incorporate these scenarios through the use of categorical or dummy variables. A mixed-effects model offers an alternate approach of accounting for these scenarios, and these models estimate parameters based on the combination of all scenarios (fixed effects) and an individual scenario (random effects). These regression models are illustrated with electric power outage data and a regional disruption that uses the DIIM to model production losses in Oklahoma following an electric power outage.
机译：最近的自然灾害凸显了需要为破坏性事件增加计划。预测系统将无法运行的损害和时间对于中断计划很重要。关键基础架构系统的弹性或从中断中快速恢复的能力可以减轻中断的不利影响。本文通过动态不可操作性投入产出模型（DIIM）量化了关键基础设施部门的弹性。 DIIM描述了破坏性事件后不可操作性如何通过一组相互依赖的行业和基础设施部门传播，其中包括尚未进行充分评估的弹性参数。本文提供了一种数据驱动的方法，可通过回归模型得出弹性参数。数据可能包含不同的破坏场景，并且回归模型可以通过使用分类变量或虚拟变量来合并这些场景。混合效应模型为解决这些情况提供了一种替代方法，这些模型基于所有情况（固定影响）和单个情况（随机影响）的组合来估计参数。这些回归模型通过停电数据和区域中断进行了说明，该区域中断使用DIIM建模了停电后俄克拉荷马州的生产损失。

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  • 来源
    《Journal of Infrastructure Systems》 |2013年第1期|25-35|共11页
  • 作者

    Cameron A. MacKenzie; Kash Barker;

  • 作者单位

    Defense Resources Management Institute, Naval Postgraduate School, 699 Dyer Rd., Bldg. 234, Monterey, CA 93943, formerly, Doctoral Candidate, School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Univ. of Oklahoma, 202 W. Boyd St., Room 124, Norman, OK 73019;

    School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Univ. of Oklahoma, 202 W. Boyd St., Room 124, Norman, OK 73019;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    resilience; interdependence; regression; power outages;

    机译：弹性;相互依存回归停电;

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