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Exploring Financial Decision-Making Approaches for Use in Earthquake Risk Decision Processes for Ports

机译：探索用于港口地震风险决策过程的财务决策方法

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摘要

One of the main topics in the Georgia Tech/NEES Grand Challenge project "Seismic Risk Mitigation for Port Systems" is the evaluation of seismic risk management approaches for ports. One subtopic of this main topic is the re-evaluation of pertinent financial risk and decision procedures for assessing seismic risk-reduction measures. In light of many criticisms of benefit-cost and least mean total cost methods, previous port seismic risk and decision procedures have benefited from the application of the mean-variance criterion. However, serious objections have been posed to the use of the mean-variance criterion so that exploration of stochastic dominance methods is encouraged. This paper outlines these methods in terms of simplifying nonparametric and upper-order statistics. Focusing on the tails of total cost distributions, this paper shows the value of these methods, but also the value of using almost stochastic dominance when strict stochastic methods fail.
机译：乔治亚理工大学/ NEES大挑战项目“港口系统的地震风险缓解”的主要主题之一是评估港口的地震风险管理方法。该主要主题的一个子主题是对相关财务风险的重新评估以及评估减少地震风险措施的决策程序。鉴于对收益成本法和最小均值成本法的许多批评，均值方差准则的应用使以前的港口地震风险和决策程序受益。但是，人们对使用均方差准则提出了严重的反对意见，因此鼓励探索随机优势方法。本文从简化非参数和高阶统计量的角度概述了这些方法。着眼于总成本分配的尾巴，本文展示了这些方法的价值，以及当严格的随机方法失败时使用几乎随机的优势的价值。

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  • 来源
    《Journal of Infrastructure Systems》 |2009年第4期|406-416|共11页
  • 作者

    Craig Taylor; Glenn Rix; Fang Liu;

  • 作者单位

    Baseline Management Company, Inc., 5402 Via del Valle, Torrance, CA 90505 Civil and Environmental Engineering Dept., Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089;

    Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, 790 Atlantic Dr., N.W. Atlanta, GA 30332-0355;

    Dept. of Geotechnical Engineering, Tongji University,1239 Siping Road, Shanghai, China 200092;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    decision making; risk management; stochastic processes; costs; seismic effects; harbors;

    机译：做决定;风险管理;随机过程;费用;地震影响;港口;

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